The absence of new diplomatic incidents since Argentina declared Iran’s chargé d’affaires persona non grata in early April has anchored trader consensus at a 72.5% probability that no additional Iranian diplomat will be expelled by June 30. That April action followed Argentina’s designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization and produced no immediate ripple effects in other capitals. Public disclosure of earlier U.S. expulsions, including the deputy UN envoy in December 2025, likewise generated no fresh follow-on measures. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks on a ceasefire framework and Strait of Hormuz access have coincided with a broader lull in bilateral friction, reducing the near-term likelihood of coordinated expulsions. No official announcements or verified incidents have emerged in the past six weeks to alter this trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июн. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The absence of new diplomatic incidents since Argentina declared Iran’s chargé d’affaires persona non grata in early April has anchored trader consensus at a 72.5% probability that no additional Iranian diplomat will be expelled by June 30. That April action followed Argentina’s designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization and produced no immediate ripple effects in other capitals. Public disclosure of earlier U.S. expulsions, including the deputy UN envoy in December 2025, likewise generated no fresh follow-on measures. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks on a ceasefire framework and Strait of Hormuz access have coincided with a broader lull in bilateral friction, reducing the near-term likelihood of coordinated expulsions. No official announcements or verified incidents have emerged in the past six weeks to alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Объем
$7,649Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The absence of new diplomatic incidents since Argentina declared Iran’s chargé d’affaires persona non grata in early April has anchored trader consensus at a 72.5% probability that no additional Iranian diplomat will be expelled by June 30. That April action followed Argentina’s designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization and produced no immediate ripple effects in other capitals. Public disclosure of earlier U.S. expulsions, including the deputy UN envoy in December 2025, likewise generated no fresh follow-on measures. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks on a ceasefire framework and Strait of Hormuz access have coincided with a broader lull in bilateral friction, reducing the near-term likelihood of coordinated expulsions. No official announcements or verified incidents have emerged in the past six weeks to alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$7,649Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of new diplomatic incidents since Argentina declared Iran’s chargé d’affaires persona non grata in early April has anchored trader consensus at a 72.5% probability that no additional Iranian diplomat will be expelled by June 30. That April action followed Argentina’s designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization and produced no immediate ripple effects in other capitals. Public disclosure of earlier U.S. expulsions, including the deputy UN envoy in December 2025, likewise generated no fresh follow-on measures. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks on a ceasefire framework and Strait of Hormuz access have coincided with a broader lull in bilateral friction, reducing the near-term likelihood of coordinated expulsions. No official announcements or verified incidents have emerged in the past six weeks to alter this trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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