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icon for US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Геополитика·Прекращение огня в Иране

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

icon for US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Геополитика·Прекращение огня в Иране

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

мая 31

июн. 30

дек. 31

мая 31

июн. 30

дек. 31

8% вероятность
Polymarket

$584,129 Объем

8% вероятность
Polymarket

$584,129 Объем

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 at just 8% likelihood, reflecting a persistent deadlock in indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Oman amid a fragile ceasefire. President Trump declared the truce on "life support" on May 11 after rejecting Tehran's counterproposal as inadequate, despite it offering partial uranium dilution; Iran insists on its right to low-level enrichment and prioritizes sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening before nuclear curbs. Vice President Vance noted progress on May 13 but emphasized Trump's red line barring any path to Iranian nuclear weapons, including stockpile removal unmet by Tehran's 12-year enrichment halt offer. With Netanyahu demanding full uranium export and no breakthroughs since April Islamabad talks, traders see major barriers outweighing slim odds of a late diplomatic surge.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Объем
$584,129
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 at just 8% likelihood, reflecting a persistent deadlock in indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Oman amid a fragile ceasefire. President Trump declared the truce on "life support" on May 11 after rejecting Tehran's counterproposal as inadequate, despite it offering partial uranium dilution; Iran insists on its right to low-level enrichment and prioritizes sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening before nuclear curbs. Vice President Vance noted progress on May 13 but emphasized Trump's red line barring any path to Iranian nuclear weapons, including stockpile removal unmet by Tehran's 12-year enrichment halt offer. With Netanyahu demanding full uranium export and no breakthroughs since April Islamabad talks, traders see major barriers outweighing slim odds of a late diplomatic surge.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Объем
$584,129
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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«US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 8% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 8¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 8%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $584.1K с момента запуска рынка Apr 29, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

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Текущая вероятность для «US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?» составляет 8% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 8%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.