Iran’s longstanding insistence that uranium enrichment remains a core sovereign right has kept diplomatic progress on a full cessation stalled, with Tehran repeatedly rejecting U.S. and Israeli demands for a permanent or near-term halt. Recent counterproposals from Iranian officials have offered only limited, time-bound suspensions or down-blending of existing stockpiles rather than an outright end to enrichment activities, while statements from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran in mid-May reaffirmed that nuclear technology and enrichment levels are non-negotiable. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks mediated through Oman and contacts with China have produced no breakthrough sufficient to meet a May 31 deadline, and fresh warnings from Tehran about resuming higher-level enrichment if attacked have reinforced the impasse. With only two weeks remaining and no scheduled summit or verified concession on the table, the 94 percent trader-implied probability for “No” reflects the significant procedural and political barriers still in place.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИран согласен прекратить обогащение урана к 31 мая?
Иран согласен прекратить обогащение урана к 31 мая?
Да
$620,489 Объем
$620,489 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Да
$620,489 Объем
$620,489 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s longstanding insistence that uranium enrichment remains a core sovereign right has kept diplomatic progress on a full cessation stalled, with Tehran repeatedly rejecting U.S. and Israeli demands for a permanent or near-term halt. Recent counterproposals from Iranian officials have offered only limited, time-bound suspensions or down-blending of existing stockpiles rather than an outright end to enrichment activities, while statements from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran in mid-May reaffirmed that nuclear technology and enrichment levels are non-negotiable. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks mediated through Oman and contacts with China have produced no breakthrough sufficient to meet a May 31 deadline, and fresh warnings from Tehran about resuming higher-level enrichment if attacked have reinforced the impasse. With only two weeks remaining and no scheduled summit or verified concession on the table, the 94 percent trader-implied probability for “No” reflects the significant procedural and political barriers still in place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Объем
$620,489Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s longstanding insistence that uranium enrichment remains a core sovereign right has kept diplomatic progress on a full cessation stalled, with Tehran repeatedly rejecting U.S. and Israeli demands for a permanent or near-term halt. Recent counterproposals from Iranian officials have offered only limited, time-bound suspensions or down-blending of existing stockpiles rather than an outright end to enrichment activities, while statements from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran in mid-May reaffirmed that nuclear technology and enrichment levels are non-negotiable. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks mediated through Oman and contacts with China have produced no breakthrough sufficient to meet a May 31 deadline, and fresh warnings from Tehran about resuming higher-level enrichment if attacked have reinforced the impasse. With only two weeks remaining and no scheduled summit or verified concession on the table, the 94 percent trader-implied probability for “No” reflects the significant procedural and political barriers still in place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$620,489Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s longstanding insistence that uranium enrichment remains a core sovereign right has kept diplomatic progress on a full cessation stalled, with Tehran repeatedly rejecting U.S. and Israeli demands for a permanent or near-term halt. Recent counterproposals from Iranian officials have offered only limited, time-bound suspensions or down-blending of existing stockpiles rather than an outright end to enrichment activities, while statements from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran in mid-May reaffirmed that nuclear technology and enrichment levels are non-negotiable. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks mediated through Oman and contacts with China have produced no breakthrough sufficient to meet a May 31 deadline, and fresh warnings from Tehran about resuming higher-level enrichment if attacked have reinforced the impasse. With only two weeks remaining and no scheduled summit or verified concession on the table, the 94 percent trader-implied probability for “No” reflects the significant procedural and political barriers still in place.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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