Ongoing military tensions in the 2026 Iran war, which began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, continue to shape assessments of any Israeli ground operation. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have referenced the limits of air power and the potential need for ground elements to achieve objectives, though Israel has publicly distanced itself from participating in U.S. ground actions. Reports indicate U.S. preparations for limited raids or operations near the Strait of Hormuz, separate from full invasion scenarios. Recent developments include resumed strikes in July, infrastructure targeting that some analysts link to possible future ground support, and fragile ceasefire talks amid blocked maritime routes. Key upcoming factors include diplomatic negotiations on nuclear issues and Hormuz access, plus any Iranian retaliation that could prompt escalation or de-escalation. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether confirmed Israeli ground forces will enter Iranian territory within resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНаземная операция Израиля в Иране подтверждена...?
$1,731,776 Объем
31 августа
1%
31 декабря
17%
$1,731,776 Объем
31 августа
1%
31 декабря
17%
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Открытие рынка: Jul 29, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions in the 2026 Iran war, which began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, continue to shape assessments of any Israeli ground operation. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have referenced the limits of air power and the potential need for ground elements to achieve objectives, though Israel has publicly distanced itself from participating in U.S. ground actions. Reports indicate U.S. preparations for limited raids or operations near the Strait of Hormuz, separate from full invasion scenarios. Recent developments include resumed strikes in July, infrastructure targeting that some analysts link to possible future ground support, and fragile ceasefire talks amid blocked maritime routes. Key upcoming factors include diplomatic negotiations on nuclear issues and Hormuz access, plus any Iranian retaliation that could prompt escalation or de-escalation. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether confirmed Israeli ground forces will enter Iranian territory within resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы