Amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear negotiations following the tense April 13 direct talks in Pakistan that ended without agreement, prompting a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, trader consensus reflects low confidence in any high-profile meeting by May 31. President Trump's ongoing summit with China's Xi Jinping today introduces uncertainty, as reports emerge of Chinese firms discussing arms sales to Iran via third countries, potentially complicating diplomacy. Vice President Vance cited US progress in talks, countered by Tehran's vow of no retreat, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's May 14-15 BRICS visit to India offers side-channel opportunities; backchannel figures like Jared Kushner loom as wildcards given historical precedents in Middle East brokerage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$78,995 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Jared Kushner
21%
Steve Witkoff
17%
J.D. Vance
12%
Marco Rubio
5%
Donald Trump
3%
$78,995 Объем
Jared Kushner
$22,201 Объем
21%
Steve Witkoff
$19,828 Объем
17%
J.D. Vance
$21,972 Объем
12%
Marco Rubio
$5,680 Объем
5%
Donald Trump
$9,315 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear negotiations following the tense April 13 direct talks in Pakistan that ended without agreement, prompting a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, trader consensus reflects low confidence in any high-profile meeting by May 31. President Trump's ongoing summit with China's Xi Jinping today introduces uncertainty, as reports emerge of Chinese firms discussing arms sales to Iran via third countries, potentially complicating diplomacy. Vice President Vance cited US progress in talks, countered by Tehran's vow of no retreat, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's May 14-15 BRICS visit to India offers side-channel opportunities; backchannel figures like Jared Kushner loom as wildcards given historical precedents in Middle East brokerage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Объем
$78,995Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear negotiations following the tense April 13 direct talks in Pakistan that ended without agreement, prompting a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, trader consensus reflects low confidence in any high-profile meeting by May 31. President Trump's ongoing summit with China's Xi Jinping today introduces uncertainty, as reports emerge of Chinese firms discussing arms sales to Iran via third countries, potentially complicating diplomacy. Vice President Vance cited US progress in talks, countered by Tehran's vow of no retreat, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's May 14-15 BRICS visit to India offers side-channel opportunities; backchannel figures like Jared Kushner loom as wildcards given historical precedents in Middle East brokerage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$78,995Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear negotiations following the tense April 13 direct talks in Pakistan that ended without agreement, prompting a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, trader consensus reflects low confidence in any high-profile meeting by May 31. President Trump's ongoing summit with China's Xi Jinping today introduces uncertainty, as reports emerge of Chinese firms discussing arms sales to Iran via third countries, potentially complicating diplomacy. Vice President Vance cited US progress in talks, countered by Tehran's vow of no retreat, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's May 14-15 BRICS visit to India offers side-channel opportunities; backchannel figures like Jared Kushner loom as wildcards given historical precedents in Middle East brokerage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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