Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by May 31, driven by repeated bipartisan failures amid partisan divides. Democrats, led by figures like Sens. Tim Kaine and Chris Murphy, have introduced multiple measures under the 1973 War Powers Resolution to require congressional authorization for ongoing U.S. military operations against Iran or mandate withdrawal, but Senate Republicans have blocked advancement at least seven times since March, most recently on May 13 in a near-party-line vote despite defections from three GOP senators including Lisa Murkowski. House rejections in April further stalled momentum, with slim majorities holding firm. With just over two weeks left and no scheduled floor votes amid the 60-day War Powers clock expiration, passage faces steep procedural hurdles like filibuster thresholds. Realistic shifts could stem from major escalation, public pressure surges, or additional GOP crossovers, though historical patterns in conflict authorizations suggest low likelihood.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мая 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by May 31, driven by repeated bipartisan failures amid partisan divides. Democrats, led by figures like Sens. Tim Kaine and Chris Murphy, have introduced multiple measures under the 1973 War Powers Resolution to require congressional authorization for ongoing U.S. military operations against Iran or mandate withdrawal, but Senate Republicans have blocked advancement at least seven times since March, most recently on May 13 in a near-party-line vote despite defections from three GOP senators including Lisa Murkowski. House rejections in April further stalled momentum, with slim majorities holding firm. With just over two weeks left and no scheduled floor votes amid the 60-day War Powers clock expiration, passage faces steep procedural hurdles like filibuster thresholds. Realistic shifts could stem from major escalation, public pressure surges, or additional GOP crossovers, though historical patterns in conflict authorizations suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Объем
$2,520Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by May 31, driven by repeated bipartisan failures amid partisan divides. Democrats, led by figures like Sens. Tim Kaine and Chris Murphy, have introduced multiple measures under the 1973 War Powers Resolution to require congressional authorization for ongoing U.S. military operations against Iran or mandate withdrawal, but Senate Republicans have blocked advancement at least seven times since March, most recently on May 13 in a near-party-line vote despite defections from three GOP senators including Lisa Murkowski. House rejections in April further stalled momentum, with slim majorities holding firm. With just over two weeks left and no scheduled floor votes amid the 60-day War Powers clock expiration, passage faces steep procedural hurdles like filibuster thresholds. Realistic shifts could stem from major escalation, public pressure surges, or additional GOP crossovers, though historical patterns in conflict authorizations suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,520Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by May 31, driven by repeated bipartisan failures amid partisan divides. Democrats, led by figures like Sens. Tim Kaine and Chris Murphy, have introduced multiple measures under the 1973 War Powers Resolution to require congressional authorization for ongoing U.S. military operations against Iran or mandate withdrawal, but Senate Republicans have blocked advancement at least seven times since March, most recently on May 13 in a near-party-line vote despite defections from three GOP senators including Lisa Murkowski. House rejections in April further stalled momentum, with slim majorities holding firm. With just over two weeks left and no scheduled floor votes amid the 60-day War Powers clock expiration, passage faces steep procedural hurdles like filibuster thresholds. Realistic shifts could stem from major escalation, public pressure surges, or additional GOP crossovers, though historical patterns in conflict authorizations suggest low likelihood.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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