Trader sentiment strongly favors Pete Hegseth remaining Secretary of Defense through May 31, reflecting his recent Senate confirmation and ongoing administration backing for defense priorities. No major ethics reviews, congressional holds, or public controversies have surfaced in recent weeks to prompt removal pressure. Cabinet officials in comparable early-term roles have historically retained positions absent acute scandals or policy failures. The near-certain market pricing aligns with the absence of scheduled confirmation-related votes or oversight hearings that could accelerate turnover. Scenarios still capable of altering this outcome include sudden health developments, unexpected diplomatic escalations requiring leadership shifts, or rapid changes in White House personnel strategy.