Traders place a 99.6% probability on Donald Trump remaining President past May 31 because the U.S. Constitution provides strong structural safeguards against abrupt removal during a sitting term. No active impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other formal mechanisms are underway in Congress, and the current House and Senate majorities make swift passage of such measures improbable. Historical patterns confirm that presidents complete their terms absent elections, resignation, or incapacitation, with no comparable events reported in recent weeks. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden health crisis or major scandal could still alter trajectories, though none have surfaced to challenge the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$1,606,172 Объем
$1,606,172 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
$1,606,172 Объем
$1,606,172 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders place a 99.6% probability on Donald Trump remaining President past May 31 because the U.S. Constitution provides strong structural safeguards against abrupt removal during a sitting term. No active impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other formal mechanisms are underway in Congress, and the current House and Senate majorities make swift passage of such measures improbable. Historical patterns confirm that presidents complete their terms absent elections, resignation, or incapacitation, with no comparable events reported in recent weeks. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden health crisis or major scandal could still alter trajectories, though none have surfaced to challenge the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Объем
$1,606,172Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders place a 99.6% probability on Donald Trump remaining President past May 31 because the U.S. Constitution provides strong structural safeguards against abrupt removal during a sitting term. No active impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other formal mechanisms are underway in Congress, and the current House and Senate majorities make swift passage of such measures improbable. Historical patterns confirm that presidents complete their terms absent elections, resignation, or incapacitation, with no comparable events reported in recent weeks. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden health crisis or major scandal could still alter trajectories, though none have surfaced to challenge the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,606,172Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders place a 99.6% probability on Donald Trump remaining President past May 31 because the U.S. Constitution provides strong structural safeguards against abrupt removal during a sitting term. No active impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other formal mechanisms are underway in Congress, and the current House and Senate majorities make swift passage of such measures improbable. Historical patterns confirm that presidents complete their terms absent elections, resignation, or incapacitation, with no comparable events reported in recent weeks. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden health crisis or major scandal could still alter trajectories, though none have surfaced to challenge the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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