The procedural requirements for removing a sitting U.S. president create substantial barriers to any change in leadership before June 30. Impeachment and conviction demand coordinated action by both chambers of Congress with supermajority thresholds, while invocation of the 25th Amendment involves the vice president and cabinet in a process that historically unfolds over months rather than weeks. With no active congressional proceedings, no reported health crises, and no major scandals triggering immediate institutional response as of mid-May, traders assign near-certain odds against an abrupt departure. Late-breaking developments such as sudden medical incapacity, unforeseen legal rulings, or rapid bipartisan consensus on misconduct could still alter the timeline, though such events remain outside established precedent within this compressed window.