This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US Vice President JD Vance stated on May 13 that the United States is making progress in indirect negotiations with Iran aimed at solidifying the fragile April 8 ceasefire and addressing the Strait of Hormuz clashes, though Tehran outlined five conditions—including ending hostilities on all fronts like Lebanon, lifting sanctions, and recognizing its sovereignty over the strait—before advancing to direct talks. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal as inadequate around May 10, stalling momentum despite Qatari and Pakistani mediation efforts in recent weeks. No date is set for the next round in Islamabad, with traders monitoring potential escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs that could trigger a bilateral US-Iran diplomatic meeting amid ongoing sanctions and proxy tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
US Vice President JD Vance stated on May 13 that the United States is making progress in indirect negotiations with Iran aimed at solidifying the fragile April 8 ceasefire and addressing the Strait of Hormuz clashes, though Tehran outlined five conditions—including ending hostilities on all fronts like Lebanon, lifting sanctions, and recognizing its sovereignty over the strait—before advancing to direct talks. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal as inadequate around May 10, stalling momentum despite Qatari and Pakistani mediation efforts in recent weeks. No date is set for the next round in Islamabad, with traders monitoring potential escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs that could trigger a bilateral US-Iran diplomatic meeting amid ongoing sanctions and proxy tensions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
May 14 2026
Market reaches endpoint: Yes probability 0% for May‑15 meeting
May 15 dips to 0%2%
By the end of the analysis window, no credible diplomatic progress had occurred, leaving the market at zero confidence for a meeting before May 15.
May 12 2026
Iran’s army chief threatens pre‑emptive attack over U.S. rhetoric
May 31 drops to 24%6%
The threatening statement from Iran’s army chief increased the perception of a hostile environment, further depressing the May‑31 price from 30% to 24% and the June‑30 price from 63% to 59%.
May 12 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials in Tehran to arrange US‑Iran talks
May 31 drops to 30%8%
The meeting suggested a possible diplomatic breakthrough, briefly stabilizing the market and raising the May‑31 price from 38% back to 30% before it fell again later in the week.
May 12 2026
Iran’s foreign minister says Tehran will not negotiate until U.S. lifts blockade
June 30 dips to 60%3%
The statement underscored a stalemate, coinciding with the lowest points for the May‑31 and June‑30 outcomes as market participants priced in a low probability of a meeting.
May 12 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 15 dips to 1%2%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and Iran’s fractured leadership, which diminished market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 15 and May 31.
May 10 2026
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 15 plunges to 55%16%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal signaled a stalled diplomatic process, causing the May‑15 price to tumble from 71% to 55% over the next two days.
May 10 2026
Trump says all options are on the table at UN Security Council
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric at the UN signaled no imminent diplomatic breakthrough, coinciding with the May‑31 price dropping from 44% to 30% and the June‑30 price falling from 75% to 65%.
May 8 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings before May 31. This contributed to further declines in market probabilities for near-term meetings.
May 8 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 44%5%
The direct military engagement heightened the risk of escalation, causing the May‑31 price to fall from 49% to 44% and the June‑30 price to slip from 72% to 65% that day.
May 8 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 60%13%
The US disabling of Iranian tankers escalated military tension, leading to a sharp price decline for the June‑30 outcome from 73% to 60% within two days.
May 7 2026
U.S. announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of the Strait, then pauses effort
May 31 drops to 38%6%
The mixed signals about reopening the strait further eroded confidence in any near‑term diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price down further.
May 2 2026
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
June 30 drops to 61%7%
The Treasury’s warning that payments to Iran could trigger sanctions underscored the hostile environment, further eroding market confidence and pushing the June‑30 price from 68% to 61% on May 2.
May 1 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 12%6%
The direct military action heightened the risk of escalation, causing a sharp drop in the May‑15 price as traders saw diplomatic engagement receding.
Apr 30 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 15 drops to 23%14%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for May 15 and May 31 outcomes.
Apr 30 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 38%7%
The seizure was viewed as a provocative act that further reduced expectations of a diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price from 45% to 38% the following day.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks
May 31 drops to 44%5%
Iran’s foreign minister’s brief visit to Islamabad ended with Trump refusing to send envoys, reinforcing the perception that in‑person talks were stalled, contributing to the May‑31 price dip from 49% to 44% that day.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan after talks canceled
May 31 dips to 27%4%
Iran’s foreign minister returned to Pakistan after the cancellation of talks, while Trump suggested the sides could talk by phone instead, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and contributing to market declines for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Apr 26 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it unsatisfactory
May 31 drops to 49%6%
The president’s dismissal of Iran’s offer reduced optimism that a meeting would be scheduled, contributing to the continued decline of the May‑31 price.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan; Trump prefers phone talks
May 15 drops to 71%8%
The brief return of Iran’s foreign minister to Islamabad raised hopes for a second round of talks, but Trump’s insistence on phone negotiations dampened optimism, causing the May‑15 price to drop from 79% to 71% the next day.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks as Iran's top diplomat leaves Islamabad
May 15 drops to 4%10%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan abruptly and President Trump announced he told US envoys not to travel to Islamabad for follow-up talks, signaling a breakdown in planned direct negotiations. This caused a sharp drop in market confidence for May 15 and May 31 meeting dates.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump said he told envoys not to travel to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned talks and causing a sharp market decline in optimism for meetings by May 31 and May 15.
Apr 23 2026
Trump says US-Iran talks could resume soon but no schedule set
June 30 jumps to 71%8%
President Trump indicated that a second round of talks could happen within two days, but a US official later said no talks were scheduled, reflecting uncertainty and causing mixed market reactions with some volatility.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan’s army chief meets Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran to discuss US‑Iran talks
May 15 drops to 70%9%
The meeting signaled a possible diplomatic channel but produced no concrete agreement, coinciding with a price dip for the May‑15 outcome as traders saw no imminent meeting.
Apr 21 2026
U.S. rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
May 15 drops to 71%8%
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, indicating no imminent meeting and coinciding with the May‑15 price falling from 79% to 71%.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires, raising hopes for diplomacy and causing a temporary market rebound for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US Vice President JD Vance stated on May 13 that the United States is making progress in indirect negotiations with Iran aimed at solidifying the fragile April 8 ceasefire and addressing the Strait of Hormuz clashes, though Tehran outlined five conditions—including ending hostilities on all fronts like Lebanon, lifting sanctions, and recognizing its sovereignty over the strait—before advancing to direct talks. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal as inadequate around May 10, stalling momentum despite Qatari and Pakistani mediation efforts in recent weeks. No date is set for the next round in Islamabad, with traders monitoring potential escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs that could trigger a bilateral US-Iran diplomatic meeting amid ongoing sanctions and proxy tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
US Vice President JD Vance stated on May 13 that the United States is making progress in indirect negotiations with Iran aimed at solidifying the fragile April 8 ceasefire and addressing the Strait of Hormuz clashes, though Tehran outlined five conditions—including ending hostilities on all fronts like Lebanon, lifting sanctions, and recognizing its sovereignty over the strait—before advancing to direct talks. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal as inadequate around May 10, stalling momentum despite Qatari and Pakistani mediation efforts in recent weeks. No date is set for the next round in Islamabad, with traders monitoring potential escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs that could trigger a bilateral US-Iran diplomatic meeting amid ongoing sanctions and proxy tensions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
May 14 2026
Market reaches endpoint: Yes probability 0% for May‑15 meeting
May 15 dips to 0%2%
By the end of the analysis window, no credible diplomatic progress had occurred, leaving the market at zero confidence for a meeting before May 15.
May 12 2026
Iran’s army chief threatens pre‑emptive attack over U.S. rhetoric
May 31 drops to 24%6%
The threatening statement from Iran’s army chief increased the perception of a hostile environment, further depressing the May‑31 price from 30% to 24% and the June‑30 price from 63% to 59%.
May 12 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials in Tehran to arrange US‑Iran talks
May 31 drops to 30%8%
The meeting suggested a possible diplomatic breakthrough, briefly stabilizing the market and raising the May‑31 price from 38% back to 30% before it fell again later in the week.
May 12 2026
Iran’s foreign minister says Tehran will not negotiate until U.S. lifts blockade
June 30 dips to 60%3%
The statement underscored a stalemate, coinciding with the lowest points for the May‑31 and June‑30 outcomes as market participants priced in a low probability of a meeting.
May 12 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 15 dips to 1%2%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and Iran’s fractured leadership, which diminished market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 15 and May 31.
May 10 2026
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 15 plunges to 55%16%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal signaled a stalled diplomatic process, causing the May‑15 price to tumble from 71% to 55% over the next two days.
May 10 2026
Trump says all options are on the table at UN Security Council
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric at the UN signaled no imminent diplomatic breakthrough, coinciding with the May‑31 price dropping from 44% to 30% and the June‑30 price falling from 75% to 65%.
May 8 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings before May 31. This contributed to further declines in market probabilities for near-term meetings.
May 8 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 44%5%
The direct military engagement heightened the risk of escalation, causing the May‑31 price to fall from 49% to 44% and the June‑30 price to slip from 72% to 65% that day.
May 8 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 60%13%
The US disabling of Iranian tankers escalated military tension, leading to a sharp price decline for the June‑30 outcome from 73% to 60% within two days.
May 7 2026
U.S. announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of the Strait, then pauses effort
May 31 drops to 38%6%
The mixed signals about reopening the strait further eroded confidence in any near‑term diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price down further.
May 2 2026
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
June 30 drops to 61%7%
The Treasury’s warning that payments to Iran could trigger sanctions underscored the hostile environment, further eroding market confidence and pushing the June‑30 price from 68% to 61% on May 2.
May 1 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 12%6%
The direct military action heightened the risk of escalation, causing a sharp drop in the May‑15 price as traders saw diplomatic engagement receding.
Apr 30 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 15 drops to 23%14%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for May 15 and May 31 outcomes.
Apr 30 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 38%7%
The seizure was viewed as a provocative act that further reduced expectations of a diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price from 45% to 38% the following day.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks
May 31 drops to 44%5%
Iran’s foreign minister’s brief visit to Islamabad ended with Trump refusing to send envoys, reinforcing the perception that in‑person talks were stalled, contributing to the May‑31 price dip from 49% to 44% that day.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan after talks canceled
May 31 dips to 27%4%
Iran’s foreign minister returned to Pakistan after the cancellation of talks, while Trump suggested the sides could talk by phone instead, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and contributing to market declines for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Apr 26 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it unsatisfactory
May 31 drops to 49%6%
The president’s dismissal of Iran’s offer reduced optimism that a meeting would be scheduled, contributing to the continued decline of the May‑31 price.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan; Trump prefers phone talks
May 15 drops to 71%8%
The brief return of Iran’s foreign minister to Islamabad raised hopes for a second round of talks, but Trump’s insistence on phone negotiations dampened optimism, causing the May‑15 price to drop from 79% to 71% the next day.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks as Iran's top diplomat leaves Islamabad
May 15 drops to 4%10%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan abruptly and President Trump announced he told US envoys not to travel to Islamabad for follow-up talks, signaling a breakdown in planned direct negotiations. This caused a sharp drop in market confidence for May 15 and May 31 meeting dates.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump said he told envoys not to travel to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned talks and causing a sharp market decline in optimism for meetings by May 31 and May 15.
Apr 23 2026
Trump says US-Iran talks could resume soon but no schedule set
June 30 jumps to 71%8%
President Trump indicated that a second round of talks could happen within two days, but a US official later said no talks were scheduled, reflecting uncertainty and causing mixed market reactions with some volatility.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan’s army chief meets Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran to discuss US‑Iran talks
May 15 drops to 70%9%
The meeting signaled a possible diplomatic channel but produced no concrete agreement, coinciding with a price dip for the May‑15 outcome as traders saw no imminent meeting.
Apr 21 2026
U.S. rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
May 15 drops to 71%8%
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, indicating no imminent meeting and coinciding with the May‑15 price falling from 79% to 71%.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires, raising hopes for diplomacy and causing a temporary market rebound for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
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Часто задаваемые вопросы
«Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 20 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «30 июня» с 58%, за ним следует «31 мая» с 26%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 58¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 58%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $36.2 million с момента запуска рынка Apr 12, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?», просмотри 20 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?» — «30 июня» с 58%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 58%. Следующий ближайший исход — «31 мая» с 26%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $36.2 million по “Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 58¢ для «30 июня» на рынке «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «30 июня» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 58%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 58¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 42¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Запланированная дата окончания рынка «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?» прошла, но рынок ещё не был официально разрешён. Дата окончания указывает, когда ожидается наступление базового события. Рынок остаётся открытым для торговли до формального разрешения. Проверь статус разрешения и раздел «Правила» на этой странице для обновлений.
Рынок «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?» имеет активное сообщество из 4,436 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
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