Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation in direct in-person diplomatic talks with Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, during a 21-hour marathon session in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11 amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire efforts, though no agreement emerged on nuclear issues or de-escalation. On May 13, Vance reported progress in ongoing negotiations coordinated with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, stressing US red lines against Iranian enrichment while prioritizing diplomacy over military escalation. Iranian negotiators previously preferred Vance's involvement due to trust issues with alternatives. No further Vance-attended meetings have materialized, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities—14% by May 31 and 31% by June 30—for renewed face-to-face diplomacy, pending Tehran's responses and potential Pakistani- or Qatari-mediated follow-ups before truce deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$104,788 Объем
15 мая 2026 г.
May 15
<1%
May 31
13%
June 30
30%
$104,788 Объем
May 15
$51,799 Объем
<1%
May 31
$46,024 Объем
13%
June 30
$6,965 Объем
30%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation in direct in-person diplomatic talks with Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, during a 21-hour marathon session in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11 amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire efforts, though no agreement emerged on nuclear issues or de-escalation. On May 13, Vance reported progress in ongoing negotiations coordinated with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, stressing US red lines against Iranian enrichment while prioritizing diplomacy over military escalation. Iranian negotiators previously preferred Vance's involvement due to trust issues with alternatives. No further Vance-attended meetings have materialized, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities—14% by May 31 and 31% by June 30—for renewed face-to-face diplomacy, pending Tehran's responses and potential Pakistani- or Qatari-mediated follow-ups before truce deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$104,788Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation in direct in-person diplomatic talks with Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, during a 21-hour marathon session in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11 amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire efforts, though no agreement emerged on nuclear issues or de-escalation. On May 13, Vance reported progress in ongoing negotiations coordinated with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, stressing US red lines against Iranian enrichment while prioritizing diplomacy over military escalation. Iranian negotiators previously preferred Vance's involvement due to trust issues with alternatives. No further Vance-attended meetings have materialized, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities—14% by May 31 and 31% by June 30—for renewed face-to-face diplomacy, pending Tehran's responses and potential Pakistani- or Qatari-mediated follow-ups before truce deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$104,788Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation in direct in-person diplomatic talks with Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, during a 21-hour marathon session in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11 amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire efforts, though no agreement emerged on nuclear issues or de-escalation. On May 13, Vance reported progress in ongoing negotiations coordinated with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, stressing US red lines against Iranian enrichment while prioritizing diplomacy over military escalation. Iranian negotiators previously preferred Vance's involvement due to trust issues with alternatives. No further Vance-attended meetings have materialized, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities—14% by May 31 and 31% by June 30—for renewed face-to-face diplomacy, pending Tehran's responses and potential Pakistani- or Qatari-mediated follow-ups before truce deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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