Recent military conflict between the United States and Iran, including airstrikes and a fragile June 2026 memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan and Qatar, has left bilateral ties severely strained without any restoration of formal diplomatic relations. The United States continues to operate without a physical presence in Iran, relying on Switzerland as protecting power and a virtual embassy for limited outreach, amid ongoing security alerts and reduced regional staffing. Traders assign 95.5% probability to no embassy reopening in 2026, reflecting the absence of normalized ties or announced plans despite the ceasefire framework. Full normalization would require major breakthroughs on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional security, any of which could still shift outcomes before year-end if negotiations accelerate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОткроют ли США свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Откроют ли США свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Да
5% вероятность
$158,294 Объем
$158,294 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$158,294 Объем
$158,294 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent military conflict between the United States and Iran, including airstrikes and a fragile June 2026 memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan and Qatar, has left bilateral ties severely strained without any restoration of formal diplomatic relations. The United States continues to operate without a physical presence in Iran, relying on Switzerland as protecting power and a virtual embassy for limited outreach, amid ongoing security alerts and reduced regional staffing. Traders assign 95.5% probability to no embassy reopening in 2026, reflecting the absence of normalized ties or announced plans despite the ceasefire framework. Full normalization would require major breakthroughs on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional security, any of which could still shift outcomes before year-end if negotiations accelerate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Объем
$158,294Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent military conflict between the United States and Iran, including airstrikes and a fragile June 2026 memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan and Qatar, has left bilateral ties severely strained without any restoration of formal diplomatic relations. The United States continues to operate without a physical presence in Iran, relying on Switzerland as protecting power and a virtual embassy for limited outreach, amid ongoing security alerts and reduced regional staffing. Traders assign 95.5% probability to no embassy reopening in 2026, reflecting the absence of normalized ties or announced plans despite the ceasefire framework. Full normalization would require major breakthroughs on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional security, any of which could still shift outcomes before year-end if negotiations accelerate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$158,294Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent military conflict between the United States and Iran, including airstrikes and a fragile June 2026 memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan and Qatar, has left bilateral ties severely strained without any restoration of formal diplomatic relations. The United States continues to operate without a physical presence in Iran, relying on Switzerland as protecting power and a virtual embassy for limited outreach, amid ongoing security alerts and reduced regional staffing. Traders assign 95.5% probability to no embassy reopening in 2026, reflecting the absence of normalized ties or announced plans despite the ceasefire framework. Full normalization would require major breakthroughs on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional security, any of which could still shift outcomes before year-end if negotiations accelerate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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