Ongoing military conflict between the United States and Iran, which began with strikes in late February 2026 and produced a fragile April ceasefire still under strain in May, remains the dominant factor behind the 88.5 percent “No” price. Indirect talks through Pakistani and Swiss channels center on de-escalation, Strait of Hormuz access, and limited nuclear restrictions rather than diplomatic restoration. Fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and rejection of Tehran’s latest counterproposal have reinforced maximum-pressure tactics over normalization. The United States has maintained no embassy or formal relations with Iran since 1980, and recent State Department alerts continue to route citizen services through Switzerland. Traders therefore assign only an 11.5 percent chance that an official reopening announcement occurs by December 31, 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОткроют ли США свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Откроют ли США свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Да
$80,059 Объем
$80,059 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$80,059 Объем
$80,059 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military conflict between the United States and Iran, which began with strikes in late February 2026 and produced a fragile April ceasefire still under strain in May, remains the dominant factor behind the 88.5 percent “No” price. Indirect talks through Pakistani and Swiss channels center on de-escalation, Strait of Hormuz access, and limited nuclear restrictions rather than diplomatic restoration. Fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and rejection of Tehran’s latest counterproposal have reinforced maximum-pressure tactics over normalization. The United States has maintained no embassy or formal relations with Iran since 1980, and recent State Department alerts continue to route citizen services through Switzerland. Traders therefore assign only an 11.5 percent chance that an official reopening announcement occurs by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Объем
$80,059Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military conflict between the United States and Iran, which began with strikes in late February 2026 and produced a fragile April ceasefire still under strain in May, remains the dominant factor behind the 88.5 percent “No” price. Indirect talks through Pakistani and Swiss channels center on de-escalation, Strait of Hormuz access, and limited nuclear restrictions rather than diplomatic restoration. Fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and rejection of Tehran’s latest counterproposal have reinforced maximum-pressure tactics over normalization. The United States has maintained no embassy or formal relations with Iran since 1980, and recent State Department alerts continue to route citizen services through Switzerland. Traders therefore assign only an 11.5 percent chance that an official reopening announcement occurs by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$80,059Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military conflict between the United States and Iran, which began with strikes in late February 2026 and produced a fragile April ceasefire still under strain in May, remains the dominant factor behind the 88.5 percent “No” price. Indirect talks through Pakistani and Swiss channels center on de-escalation, Strait of Hormuz access, and limited nuclear restrictions rather than diplomatic restoration. Fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and rejection of Tehran’s latest counterproposal have reinforced maximum-pressure tactics over normalization. The United States has maintained no embassy or formal relations with Iran since 1980, and recent State Department alerts continue to route citizen services through Switzerland. Traders therefore assign only an 11.5 percent chance that an official reopening announcement occurs by December 31, 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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