Anthropic's recent releases, including Claude Opus 5 in late July and strong showings from models like Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven its 97.3% implied probability by topping multiple August 2026 leaderboards in coding, reasoning, and composite quality metrics. Traders see these capabilities as establishing a clear edge over competitors ahead of the end-of-month snapshot, with no rival launches scheduled before September. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini updates remain competitive on some general benchmarks but trail in key developer-relevant areas. A surprise mid-month update from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpectedly weak Anthropic iteration on August 17, represent the main realistic paths that could narrow the gap before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце августа?
Какая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце августа?
Anthropic 97.2%
OpenAI 1.8%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,815,649 Объем
$1,815,649 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
2%
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 97.2%
OpenAI 1.8%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,815,649 Объем
$1,815,649 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
Anthropic
$371,888 Объем
97%
OpenAI
$154,559 Объем
2%
$140,282 Объем
1%
Meta
$149,711 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$139,151 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$150,360 Объем
<1%
SpaceXAI
$154,121 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$225,813 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$108,007 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$15,032 Объем
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$9,778 Объем
<1%
Bytedance
$103,190 Объем
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 Объем
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 Объем
<1%
MiniMax
$28,168 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$4,351 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 Объем
<1%
Tencent
$4,363 Объем
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$11,524 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent releases, including Claude Opus 5 in late July and strong showings from models like Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven its 97.3% implied probability by topping multiple August 2026 leaderboards in coding, reasoning, and composite quality metrics. Traders see these capabilities as establishing a clear edge over competitors ahead of the end-of-month snapshot, with no rival launches scheduled before September. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini updates remain competitive on some general benchmarks but trail in key developer-relevant areas. A surprise mid-month update from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpectedly weak Anthropic iteration on August 17, represent the main realistic paths that could narrow the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Объем
$1,815,649Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent releases, including Claude Opus 5 in late July and strong showings from models like Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven its 97.3% implied probability by topping multiple August 2026 leaderboards in coding, reasoning, and composite quality metrics. Traders see these capabilities as establishing a clear edge over competitors ahead of the end-of-month snapshot, with no rival launches scheduled before September. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini updates remain competitive on some general benchmarks but trail in key developer-relevant areas. A surprise mid-month update from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpectedly weak Anthropic iteration on August 17, represent the main realistic paths that could narrow the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Объем
$1,815,649Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent releases, including Claude Opus 5 in late July and strong showings from models like Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven its 97.3% implied probability by topping multiple August 2026 leaderboards in coding, reasoning, and composite quality metrics. Traders see these capabilities as establishing a clear edge over competitors ahead of the end-of-month snapshot, with no rival launches scheduled before September. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini updates remain competitive on some general benchmarks but trail in key developer-relevant areas. A surprise mid-month update from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpectedly weak Anthropic iteration on August 17, represent the main realistic paths that could narrow the gap before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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