Anthropic's commanding 88.5% implied probability stems from its recent Claude series releases—Fable 5 in June and Opus 5 in July 2026—securing top spots across major benchmarks like BenchAlign, GPQA Diamond, and agentic coding evaluations, outpacing rivals in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. These models demonstrate consistent leadership in composite quality indexes and long-context tasks, reflecting verified performance gains rather than speculation. Other labs trail with lower probabilities due to slower benchmark momentum, while the tight 50% clustering among secondary contenders signals ongoing uncertainty in a fast-moving landscape. Traders view Anthropic's edge as durable heading into late September resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоУ какой компании лучшая модель ИИ в конце сентября?
У какой компании лучшая модель ИИ в конце сентября?
Anthropic 89%
SpaceXAI 3.8%
OpenAI 3.7%
Google 2.6%
$316,445 Объем
$316,445 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Anthropic
89%
SpaceXAI
4%
OpenAI
4%
3%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 89%
SpaceXAI 3.8%
OpenAI 3.7%
Google 2.6%
$316,445 Объем
$316,445 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Anthropic
$41,963 Объем
89%
SpaceXAI
$16,362 Объем
4%
OpenAI
$16,800 Объем
4%
$15,459 Объем
3%
Meta
$13,276 Объем
1%
Alibaba
$18,095 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$11,757 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$12,542 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$17,840 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$12,784 Объем
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,301 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$14,670 Объем
<1%
ByteDance
$11,882 Объем
<1%
Nvidia
$13,122 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$16,265 Объем
<1%
Thinky
$14,148 Объем
<1%
MiniMax
$14,320 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$12,486 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$10,484 Объем
<1%
Tencent
$6,758 Объем
<1%
StepFun
$14,131 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's commanding 88.5% implied probability stems from its recent Claude series releases—Fable 5 in June and Opus 5 in July 2026—securing top spots across major benchmarks like BenchAlign, GPQA Diamond, and agentic coding evaluations, outpacing rivals in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. These models demonstrate consistent leadership in composite quality indexes and long-context tasks, reflecting verified performance gains rather than speculation. Other labs trail with lower probabilities due to slower benchmark momentum, while the tight 50% clustering among secondary contenders signals ongoing uncertainty in a fast-moving landscape. Traders view Anthropic's edge as durable heading into late September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Объем
$316,445Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's commanding 88.5% implied probability stems from its recent Claude series releases—Fable 5 in June and Opus 5 in July 2026—securing top spots across major benchmarks like BenchAlign, GPQA Diamond, and agentic coding evaluations, outpacing rivals in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. These models demonstrate consistent leadership in composite quality indexes and long-context tasks, reflecting verified performance gains rather than speculation. Other labs trail with lower probabilities due to slower benchmark momentum, while the tight 50% clustering among secondary contenders signals ongoing uncertainty in a fast-moving landscape. Traders view Anthropic's edge as durable heading into late September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Объем
$316,445Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's commanding 88.5% implied probability stems from its recent Claude series releases—Fable 5 in June and Opus 5 in July 2026—securing top spots across major benchmarks like BenchAlign, GPQA Diamond, and agentic coding evaluations, outpacing rivals in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. These models demonstrate consistent leadership in composite quality indexes and long-context tasks, reflecting verified performance gains rather than speculation. Other labs trail with lower probabilities due to slower benchmark momentum, while the tight 50% clustering among secondary contenders signals ongoing uncertainty in a fast-moving landscape. Traders view Anthropic's edge as durable heading into late September resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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