FIFA president Gianni Infantino has repeatedly confirmed Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup, most recently at the April congress, while the Iranian federation secured approval in May to shift its training base to Tijuana, Mexico, allowing matchday travel into the United States. These steps, combined with Italy's outright rejection of any swap proposal and the absence of any official FIFA contingency plans, have anchored trader consensus around no replacement. Geopolitical tensions earlier raised withdrawal speculation, yet recent base-camp logistics and confederation stability have reinforced the status quo. A late Iranian pullout remains theoretically possible due to safety or political factors, potentially opening spots for AFC sides such as the UAE, but such scenarios lack supporting developments and face significant FIFA procedural hurdles.