**Trader consensus on no new Abraham Accords signatory by October 31 reflects stalled normalization talks, particularly with Saudi Arabia.** Riyadh has repeatedly conditioned formal ties on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand unmet by Israel’s current government. Recent U.S. efforts to advance a Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, including its presentation to Congress in late August 2026, explicitly tie approval to Accords accession, yet Saudi officials maintain their longstanding position without signs of near-term movement. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession remains the most recent addition, while potential candidates such as Syria and others show only preliminary dialogue without imminent resolution. The compressed timeline through October and absence of verified breakthroughs in bilateral or multilateral negotiations underpin the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
7% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 окт. 2026 г.
Да
7% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 окт. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on no new Abraham Accords signatory by October 31 reflects stalled normalization talks, particularly with Saudi Arabia.** Riyadh has repeatedly conditioned formal ties on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand unmet by Israel’s current government. Recent U.S. efforts to advance a Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, including its presentation to Congress in late August 2026, explicitly tie approval to Accords accession, yet Saudi officials maintain their longstanding position without signs of near-term movement. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession remains the most recent addition, while potential candidates such as Syria and others show only preliminary dialogue without imminent resolution. The compressed timeline through October and absence of verified breakthroughs in bilateral or multilateral negotiations underpin the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Объем
$794Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on no new Abraham Accords signatory by October 31 reflects stalled normalization talks, particularly with Saudi Arabia.** Riyadh has repeatedly conditioned formal ties on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand unmet by Israel’s current government. Recent U.S. efforts to advance a Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, including its presentation to Congress in late August 2026, explicitly tie approval to Accords accession, yet Saudi officials maintain their longstanding position without signs of near-term movement. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession remains the most recent addition, while potential candidates such as Syria and others show only preliminary dialogue without imminent resolution. The compressed timeline through October and absence of verified breakthroughs in bilateral or multilateral negotiations underpin the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$794Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on no new Abraham Accords signatory by October 31 reflects stalled normalization talks, particularly with Saudi Arabia.** Riyadh has repeatedly conditioned formal ties on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand unmet by Israel’s current government. Recent U.S. efforts to advance a Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, including its presentation to Congress in late August 2026, explicitly tie approval to Accords accession, yet Saudi officials maintain their longstanding position without signs of near-term movement. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession remains the most recent addition, while potential candidates such as Syria and others show only preliminary dialogue without imminent resolution. The compressed timeline through October and absence of verified breakthroughs in bilateral or multilateral negotiations underpin the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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