The UK Home Office’s April revocation of Ye’s Electronic Travel Authorisation has anchored the 91% implied probability on “No,” citing his presence as not conducive to the public good amid longstanding antisemitic controversies. This official ban, which prompted the immediate cancellation of his July Wireless Festival headline slot, has solidified trader consensus that no visit will materialize before the June 30 cutoff. While personal travel outside festival commitments remains theoretically possible, no credible reports indicate any pending waiver or appeal success in the near term. Historical patterns of restricted entry for similar public-figure cases and the absence of fresh diplomatic signals reinforce the market’s strong positioning, though an unexpected policy reversal could still shift sentiment ahead of the deadline.