The Vatican’s formal decree on July 2 excommunicating six SSPX bishops, all its priests, and formally adhering lay faithful for unauthorized consecrations has underscored the Church’s readiness to impose the penalty publicly amid schism risks under Pope Leo XIV. This high-profile action, the first major case in years, fuels the even 50% odds by demonstrating both institutional resolve and the rarity of such steps. Traders weigh the potential for further SSPX defiance, other traditionalist challenges, or internal disputes against efforts at reconciliation or containment that could limit additional public cases through year-end. The outcome hinges on whether escalating tensions produce new canonical violations or whether Vatican diplomacy stabilizes the situation without more sanctions.