Despite sustained external military pressure from U.S. and Israeli operations and the largest wave of nationwide protests since 1979, which began in December 2025 and continued into March 2026, Iran's core institutions have shown continuity. Security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps suppressed demonstrations through mass arrests and decisive action, while a leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination installed his son Mojtaba without fracturing elite cohesion. As of April 2026, officials are emphasizing internal unity amid economic strains from sanctions, blockades, and conflict, with U.S. intelligence assessments indicating the government retains control and faces no imminent collapse. These factors underpin traders' 83.5% consensus that the regime will remain in power through 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$17,909,823 Объем
$17,909,823 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$17,909,823 Объем
$17,909,823 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite sustained external military pressure from U.S. and Israeli operations and the largest wave of nationwide protests since 1979, which began in December 2025 and continued into March 2026, Iran's core institutions have shown continuity. Security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps suppressed demonstrations through mass arrests and decisive action, while a leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination installed his son Mojtaba without fracturing elite cohesion. As of April 2026, officials are emphasizing internal unity amid economic strains from sanctions, blockades, and conflict, with U.S. intelligence assessments indicating the government retains control and faces no imminent collapse. These factors underpin traders' 83.5% consensus that the regime will remain in power through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Объем
$17,909,823Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite sustained external military pressure from U.S. and Israeli operations and the largest wave of nationwide protests since 1979, which began in December 2025 and continued into March 2026, Iran's core institutions have shown continuity. Security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps suppressed demonstrations through mass arrests and decisive action, while a leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination installed his son Mojtaba without fracturing elite cohesion. As of April 2026, officials are emphasizing internal unity amid economic strains from sanctions, blockades, and conflict, with U.S. intelligence assessments indicating the government retains control and faces no imminent collapse. These factors underpin traders' 83.5% consensus that the regime will remain in power through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$17,909,856Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite sustained external military pressure from U.S. and Israeli operations and the largest wave of nationwide protests since 1979, which began in December 2025 and continued into March 2026, Iran's core institutions have shown continuity. Security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps suppressed demonstrations through mass arrests and decisive action, while a leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination installed his son Mojtaba without fracturing elite cohesion. As of April 2026, officials are emphasizing internal unity amid economic strains from sanctions, blockades, and conflict, with U.S. intelligence assessments indicating the government retains control and faces no imminent collapse. These factors underpin traders' 83.5% consensus that the regime will remain in power through 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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