The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death earlier in 2026, with a rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and continued cohesion within the IRGC and security forces that prevented widespread military defections or elite fragmentation. Ongoing protests since late 2025, driven by economic pressures including currency depreciation and sanctions, have remained geographically dispersed and without centralized leadership capable of forcing systemic change. US and Israeli strikes damaged infrastructure and proxy networks but did not trigger the scale of internal collapse needed for regime transition. Traders reflect this pattern of survival through the June 2027 window by pricing a strong consensus on continuity, though further escalation or coordinated domestic mobilization could still alter trajectories.