**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have centered on airstrikes, naval blockade enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, and economic pressure rather than large-scale ground operations.** The June 2026 memorandum of understanding expired in mid-August without resolving Iran's nuclear program or maritime access, leading to resumed targeted strikes, renewed sanctions, and indirect talks via Oman and other mediators. US actions have focused on degrading missile, drone, and nuclear-related capabilities through air and maritime means while imposing broad economic measures. A full ground invasion of Iran remains a high-cost option with significant logistical, political, and force-protection barriers, consistent with the current strategy of calibrated coercion short of occupation. Trader pricing at 83.5% against an invasion before 2027 aligns with this pattern of limited escalation and the absence of any shift toward sustained troop deployments in recent months.