Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats maintaining a consistent 5- to 7-point national edge, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party during Donald Trump's second term. This environment, reinforced by Democratic overperformance in special elections and modest redistricting adjustments that have not reversed the broader tilt, positions a Democratic popular vote margin of 6-12 points as the core trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The elevated share on "Other" captures uncertainty around exact size or tail outcomes, while Republican-positive margins remain low-probability given the structural headwinds and historical patterns for the incumbent party. Upcoming campaign events and further polling shifts could still adjust these implied probabilities before November.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,297 ปริมาณ
$119,297 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
2%
Democrats 12-14%
8%
Democrats 10-12%
22%
Democrats 8-10%
27%
Democrats 6-8%
18%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
7%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
5%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,297 ปริมาณ
$119,297 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,158 ปริมาณ
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$2,466 ปริมาณ
2%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,106 ปริมาณ
8%
Democrats 10-12%
$7,995 ปริมาณ
22%
Democrats 8-10%
$13,866 ปริมาณ
27%
Democrats 6-8%
$13,877 ปริมาณ
18%
Democrats 4-6%
$5,245 ปริมาณ
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$13,796 ปริมาณ
7%
Democrats 0-2%
$13,479 ปริมาณ
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,143 ปริมาณ
5%
Republicans 2-4%
$29,530 ปริมาณ
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$2,878 ปริมาณ
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,756 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats maintaining a consistent 5- to 7-point national edge, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party during Donald Trump's second term. This environment, reinforced by Democratic overperformance in special elections and modest redistricting adjustments that have not reversed the broader tilt, positions a Democratic popular vote margin of 6-12 points as the core trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The elevated share on "Other" captures uncertainty around exact size or tail outcomes, while Republican-positive margins remain low-probability given the structural headwinds and historical patterns for the incumbent party. Upcoming campaign events and further polling shifts could still adjust these implied probabilities before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$119,297วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats maintaining a consistent 5- to 7-point national edge, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party during Donald Trump's second term. This environment, reinforced by Democratic overperformance in special elections and modest redistricting adjustments that have not reversed the broader tilt, positions a Democratic popular vote margin of 6-12 points as the core trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The elevated share on "Other" captures uncertainty around exact size or tail outcomes, while Republican-positive margins remain low-probability given the structural headwinds and historical patterns for the incumbent party. Upcoming campaign events and further polling shifts could still adjust these implied probabilities before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$119,297วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats maintaining a consistent 5- to 7-point national edge, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party during Donald Trump's second term. This environment, reinforced by Democratic overperformance in special elections and modest redistricting adjustments that have not reversed the broader tilt, positions a Democratic popular vote margin of 6-12 points as the core trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The elevated share on "Other" captures uncertainty around exact size or tail outcomes, while Republican-positive margins remain low-probability given the structural headwinds and historical patterns for the incumbent party. Upcoming campaign events and further polling shifts could still adjust these implied probabilities before November.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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