Early in the 2026 midterm cycle, traders assign the highest probability to "Other" for the national House popular vote margin because six months of remaining developments—including primaries, economic indicators, candidate recruitment, and turnout patterns—could easily shift the result outside the narrower ranges listed. Recent generic congressional ballot polls from late April and early May show Democrats holding a consistent 5- to 7-point national edge, consistent with historical midterm swings against the president's party, yet this lead remains fluid amid ongoing redistricting litigation and a Supreme Court ruling that may alter district lines in several Southern states. Democratic fundraising momentum and competitive positioning in battleground districts further support modest Democratic margins in the 6- to 12-point band, while Republican opportunities hinge on improved performance in redrawn maps and any late-cycle economic or approval-rating shifts that could narrow or reverse the gap.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats 8-10% 15%
Democrats 10-12% 13%
Republicans 0-2% 9.6%
Democrats 6-8% 9%
$34,656 ปริมาณ
$34,656 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
3%
Democrats 14-16%
5%
Democrats 12-14%
3%
Democrats 10-12%
13%
Democrats 8-10%
15%
Democrats 6-8%
9%
Democrats 4-6%
7%
Democrats 2-4%
4%
Democrats 0-2%
5%
Republicans 0-2%
10%
Republicans 2-4%
9%
Republicans 4-6%
2%
Republicans 6%+
3%
Democrats 8-10% 15%
Democrats 10-12% 13%
Republicans 0-2% 9.6%
Democrats 6-8% 9%
$34,656 ปริมาณ
$34,656 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$804 ปริมาณ
3%
Democrats 14-16%
$476 ปริมาณ
5%
Democrats 12-14%
$462 ปริมาณ
3%
Democrats 10-12%
$830 ปริมาณ
13%
Democrats 8-10%
$1,555 ปริมาณ
15%
Democrats 6-8%
$693 ปริมาณ
9%
Democrats 4-6%
$258 ปริมาณ
7%
Democrats 2-4%
$1,002 ปริมาณ
4%
Democrats 0-2%
$869 ปริมาณ
5%
Republicans 0-2%
$864 ปริมาณ
10%
Republicans 2-4%
$25,856 ปริมาณ
9%
Republicans 4-6%
$230 ปริมาณ
2%
Republicans 6%+
$757 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Early in the 2026 midterm cycle, traders assign the highest probability to "Other" for the national House popular vote margin because six months of remaining developments—including primaries, economic indicators, candidate recruitment, and turnout patterns—could easily shift the result outside the narrower ranges listed. Recent generic congressional ballot polls from late April and early May show Democrats holding a consistent 5- to 7-point national edge, consistent with historical midterm swings against the president's party, yet this lead remains fluid amid ongoing redistricting litigation and a Supreme Court ruling that may alter district lines in several Southern states. Democratic fundraising momentum and competitive positioning in battleground districts further support modest Democratic margins in the 6- to 12-point band, while Republican opportunities hinge on improved performance in redrawn maps and any late-cycle economic or approval-rating shifts that could narrow or reverse the gap.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,656วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Early in the 2026 midterm cycle, traders assign the highest probability to "Other" for the national House popular vote margin because six months of remaining developments—including primaries, economic indicators, candidate recruitment, and turnout patterns—could easily shift the result outside the narrower ranges listed. Recent generic congressional ballot polls from late April and early May show Democrats holding a consistent 5- to 7-point national edge, consistent with historical midterm swings against the president's party, yet this lead remains fluid amid ongoing redistricting litigation and a Supreme Court ruling that may alter district lines in several Southern states. Democratic fundraising momentum and competitive positioning in battleground districts further support modest Democratic margins in the 6- to 12-point band, while Republican opportunities hinge on improved performance in redrawn maps and any late-cycle economic or approval-rating shifts that could narrow or reverse the gap.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,656วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early in the 2026 midterm cycle, traders assign the highest probability to "Other" for the national House popular vote margin because six months of remaining developments—including primaries, economic indicators, candidate recruitment, and turnout patterns—could easily shift the result outside the narrower ranges listed. Recent generic congressional ballot polls from late April and early May show Democrats holding a consistent 5- to 7-point national edge, consistent with historical midterm swings against the president's party, yet this lead remains fluid amid ongoing redistricting litigation and a Supreme Court ruling that may alter district lines in several Southern states. Democratic fundraising momentum and competitive positioning in battleground districts further support modest Democratic margins in the 6- to 12-point band, while Republican opportunities hinge on improved performance in redrawn maps and any late-cycle economic or approval-rating shifts that could narrow or reverse the gap.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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