Democrats hold a consistent 6-7 point advantage in generic congressional ballot polling averages heading into the November 2026 midterms, consistent with the historical pattern of the president's party facing headwinds. This national environment, combined with a modest number of competitive districts after recent redistricting, positions Democratic margins of victory in the 6-12 point range as the most probable outcomes according to trader consensus. Key factors sustaining these probabilities include ongoing primary results, retirements among Republican incumbents, and special election performance that has tracked Democratic strength. The elevated price on "Other" reflects uncertainty around final turnout dynamics, late-cycle events, and whether the popular vote margin could fall outside the listed buckets or produce narrower or wider results than current polling suggests. Scheduled developments through the fall, including additional primaries and campaign spending patterns, will continue to shape these assessments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,661 ปริมาณ
$119,661 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
2%
Democrats 12-14%
7%
Democrats 10-12%
22%
Democrats 8-10%
27%
Democrats 6-8%
19%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
6%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
5%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,661 ปริมาณ
$119,661 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,158 ปริมาณ
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$2,466 ปริมาณ
2%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,106 ปริมาณ
7%
Democrats 10-12%
$7,995 ปริมาณ
22%
Democrats 8-10%
$13,866 ปริมาณ
27%
Democrats 6-8%
$13,877 ปริมาณ
19%
Democrats 4-6%
$5,245 ปริมาณ
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$14,161 ปริมาณ
6%
Democrats 0-2%
$13,479 ปริมาณ
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,143 ปริมาณ
5%
Republicans 2-4%
$29,530 ปริมาณ
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$2,878 ปริมาณ
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,756 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democrats hold a consistent 6-7 point advantage in generic congressional ballot polling averages heading into the November 2026 midterms, consistent with the historical pattern of the president's party facing headwinds. This national environment, combined with a modest number of competitive districts after recent redistricting, positions Democratic margins of victory in the 6-12 point range as the most probable outcomes according to trader consensus. Key factors sustaining these probabilities include ongoing primary results, retirements among Republican incumbents, and special election performance that has tracked Democratic strength. The elevated price on "Other" reflects uncertainty around final turnout dynamics, late-cycle events, and whether the popular vote margin could fall outside the listed buckets or produce narrower or wider results than current polling suggests. Scheduled developments through the fall, including additional primaries and campaign spending patterns, will continue to shape these assessments.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$119,661วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democrats hold a consistent 6-7 point advantage in generic congressional ballot polling averages heading into the November 2026 midterms, consistent with the historical pattern of the president's party facing headwinds. This national environment, combined with a modest number of competitive districts after recent redistricting, positions Democratic margins of victory in the 6-12 point range as the most probable outcomes according to trader consensus. Key factors sustaining these probabilities include ongoing primary results, retirements among Republican incumbents, and special election performance that has tracked Democratic strength. The elevated price on "Other" reflects uncertainty around final turnout dynamics, late-cycle events, and whether the popular vote margin could fall outside the listed buckets or produce narrower or wider results than current polling suggests. Scheduled developments through the fall, including additional primaries and campaign spending patterns, will continue to shape these assessments.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$119,661วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democrats hold a consistent 6-7 point advantage in generic congressional ballot polling averages heading into the November 2026 midterms, consistent with the historical pattern of the president's party facing headwinds. This national environment, combined with a modest number of competitive districts after recent redistricting, positions Democratic margins of victory in the 6-12 point range as the most probable outcomes according to trader consensus. Key factors sustaining these probabilities include ongoing primary results, retirements among Republican incumbents, and special election performance that has tracked Democratic strength. The elevated price on "Other" reflects uncertainty around final turnout dynamics, late-cycle events, and whether the popular vote margin could fall outside the listed buckets or produce narrower or wider results than current polling suggests. Scheduled developments through the fall, including additional primaries and campaign spending patterns, will continue to shape these assessments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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