The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent, passed by a 6-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to anchor trader expectations for the July meeting. Upward revisions to the fiscal 2026 core inflation outlook, now at 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent, reflect persistent energy-price pressures tied to Middle East supply risks, while the growth forecast was trimmed to 0.5 percent. A mid-May Reuters poll of economists assigns a 65 percent probability of a June rate increase to 1.0 percent, which would likely leave the subsequent July meeting unchanged and align with the 58 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty over global growth, yen dynamics, and domestic wage trends supports a modest 40 percent probability of a further 25-basis-point adjustment in July.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNo change 59%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
40%
50+ bps increase
5%
No change 59%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$447 ปริมาณ
2%
25 bps decrease
$307 ปริมาณ
1%
No change
$20 ปริมาณ
59%
25 bps increase
$77 ปริมาณ
40%
50+ bps increase
$61 ปริมาณ
5%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent, passed by a 6-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to anchor trader expectations for the July meeting. Upward revisions to the fiscal 2026 core inflation outlook, now at 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent, reflect persistent energy-price pressures tied to Middle East supply risks, while the growth forecast was trimmed to 0.5 percent. A mid-May Reuters poll of economists assigns a 65 percent probability of a June rate increase to 1.0 percent, which would likely leave the subsequent July meeting unchanged and align with the 58 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty over global growth, yen dynamics, and domestic wage trends supports a modest 40 percent probability of a further 25-basis-point adjustment in July.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$912วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent, passed by a 6-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to anchor trader expectations for the July meeting. Upward revisions to the fiscal 2026 core inflation outlook, now at 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent, reflect persistent energy-price pressures tied to Middle East supply risks, while the growth forecast was trimmed to 0.5 percent. A mid-May Reuters poll of economists assigns a 65 percent probability of a June rate increase to 1.0 percent, which would likely leave the subsequent July meeting unchanged and align with the 58 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty over global growth, yen dynamics, and domestic wage trends supports a modest 40 percent probability of a further 25-basis-point adjustment in July.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$912วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent, passed by a 6-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to anchor trader expectations for the July meeting. Upward revisions to the fiscal 2026 core inflation outlook, now at 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent, reflect persistent energy-price pressures tied to Middle East supply risks, while the growth forecast was trimmed to 0.5 percent. A mid-May Reuters poll of economists assigns a 65 percent probability of a June rate increase to 1.0 percent, which would likely leave the subsequent July meeting unchanged and align with the 58 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty over global growth, yen dynamics, and domestic wage trends supports a modest 40 percent probability of a further 25-basis-point adjustment in July.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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