The Bank of Japan’s July 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 1.00%—its highest level since 1995 following the June 25-basis-point hike—has left October’s outcome finely balanced among no change, modest tightening, or larger moves. Persistent underlying CPI near or above the 2% target, resilient domestic demand, and a weaker yen continue to support gradual normalization, as highlighted in the BoJ’s July Outlook Report, while balanced risks around global growth, Middle East developments, and AI-related demand introduce caution. Traders are pricing in data dependence ahead of the September and late-October meetings, with incoming inflation prints, yen volatility, and any revisions to growth forecasts likely to shift the implied probability between a hold and a 25-basis-point increase. This setup reflects the central bank’s incremental approach to monetary policy adjustment amid elevated uncertainty.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNo change 51%
25 bps increase 48%
50+ bps decrease 5%
25 bps decrease 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 30, 2026
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
51%
25 bps increase
48%
50+ bps increase
5%
No change 51%
25 bps increase 48%
50+ bps decrease 5%
25 bps decrease 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 30, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
25 bps decrease
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
No change
$0 ปริมาณ
51%
25 bps increase
$0 ปริมาณ
48%
50+ bps increase
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s July 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 1.00%—its highest level since 1995 following the June 25-basis-point hike—has left October’s outcome finely balanced among no change, modest tightening, or larger moves. Persistent underlying CPI near or above the 2% target, resilient domestic demand, and a weaker yen continue to support gradual normalization, as highlighted in the BoJ’s July Outlook Report, while balanced risks around global growth, Middle East developments, and AI-related demand introduce caution. Traders are pricing in data dependence ahead of the September and late-October meetings, with incoming inflation prints, yen volatility, and any revisions to growth forecasts likely to shift the implied probability between a hold and a 25-basis-point increase. This setup reflects the central bank’s incremental approach to monetary policy adjustment amid elevated uncertainty.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s July 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 1.00%—its highest level since 1995 following the June 25-basis-point hike—has left October’s outcome finely balanced among no change, modest tightening, or larger moves. Persistent underlying CPI near or above the 2% target, resilient domestic demand, and a weaker yen continue to support gradual normalization, as highlighted in the BoJ’s July Outlook Report, while balanced risks around global growth, Middle East developments, and AI-related demand introduce caution. Traders are pricing in data dependence ahead of the September and late-October meetings, with incoming inflation prints, yen volatility, and any revisions to growth forecasts likely to shift the implied probability between a hold and a 25-basis-point increase. This setup reflects the central bank’s incremental approach to monetary policy adjustment amid elevated uncertainty.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s July 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 1.00%—its highest level since 1995 following the June 25-basis-point hike—has left October’s outcome finely balanced among no change, modest tightening, or larger moves. Persistent underlying CPI near or above the 2% target, resilient domestic demand, and a weaker yen continue to support gradual normalization, as highlighted in the BoJ’s July Outlook Report, while balanced risks around global growth, Middle East developments, and AI-related demand introduce caution. Traders are pricing in data dependence ahead of the September and late-October meetings, with incoming inflation prints, yen volatility, and any revisions to growth forecasts likely to shift the implied probability between a hold and a 25-basis-point increase. This setup reflects the central bank’s incremental approach to monetary policy adjustment amid elevated uncertainty.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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