Recent Supreme Court rulings have reinforced barriers to Carles Puigdemont’s return, with Judge Pablo Llarena rejecting amnesty application to his malversation charges and upholding the national arrest warrant despite the July 2026 CJEU endorsement of Spain’s amnesty law. This maintains the core legal obstacle stemming from the 2017 procés, where personal-benefit arguments exclude full coverage. Traders price “No” at 65.5% as the Constitutional Court’s pending deliberations—starting late September—offer no guarantee of swift resolution or warrant lift before year-end, echoing prior judicial resistance and Puigdemont’s exile status since 2017. Key catalysts include October Constitutional precedents and any Junts negotiations, though timing and conservative interpretations create substantial hurdles for a 2026 homecoming.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว35% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
35% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent Supreme Court rulings have reinforced barriers to Carles Puigdemont’s return, with Judge Pablo Llarena rejecting amnesty application to his malversation charges and upholding the national arrest warrant despite the July 2026 CJEU endorsement of Spain’s amnesty law. This maintains the core legal obstacle stemming from the 2017 procés, where personal-benefit arguments exclude full coverage. Traders price “No” at 65.5% as the Constitutional Court’s pending deliberations—starting late September—offer no guarantee of swift resolution or warrant lift before year-end, echoing prior judicial resistance and Puigdemont’s exile status since 2017. Key catalysts include October Constitutional precedents and any Junts negotiations, though timing and conservative interpretations create substantial hurdles for a 2026 homecoming.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,625วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent Supreme Court rulings have reinforced barriers to Carles Puigdemont’s return, with Judge Pablo Llarena rejecting amnesty application to his malversation charges and upholding the national arrest warrant despite the July 2026 CJEU endorsement of Spain’s amnesty law. This maintains the core legal obstacle stemming from the 2017 procés, where personal-benefit arguments exclude full coverage. Traders price “No” at 65.5% as the Constitutional Court’s pending deliberations—starting late September—offer no guarantee of swift resolution or warrant lift before year-end, echoing prior judicial resistance and Puigdemont’s exile status since 2017. Key catalysts include October Constitutional precedents and any Junts negotiations, though timing and conservative interpretations create substantial hurdles for a 2026 homecoming.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,625วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent Supreme Court rulings have reinforced barriers to Carles Puigdemont’s return, with Judge Pablo Llarena rejecting amnesty application to his malversation charges and upholding the national arrest warrant despite the July 2026 CJEU endorsement of Spain’s amnesty law. This maintains the core legal obstacle stemming from the 2017 procés, where personal-benefit arguments exclude full coverage. Traders price “No” at 65.5% as the Constitutional Court’s pending deliberations—starting late September—offer no guarantee of swift resolution or warrant lift before year-end, echoing prior judicial resistance and Puigdemont’s exile status since 2017. Key catalysts include October Constitutional precedents and any Junts negotiations, though timing and conservative interpretations create substantial hurdles for a 2026 homecoming.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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