Recent developments center on Nigel Farage’s July 2026 resignation as Clacton MP to force a by-election he intends to contest, framed as a “people versus establishment” vote amid scrutiny over unregistered donations and finances. Major parties including Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats have declined to field candidates, leaving Reform UK’s incumbent facing minimal organized opposition in the Essex constituency he captured with 46.2% in 2024. Public polling shows broad opposition to the by-election itself, yet Reform voters back the move. These factors support trader consensus on Farage securing over 50% of the vote, while closely matched prices across the 40-70% buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout, protest votes, and any residual impact from financial questions in an otherwise low-contest race.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFarage 70–80% 32.8%
Farage 80%+ 30%
Farage 60–70% 24%
Farage 50–60% 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
3%
Farage 40–50%
4%
Farage 50–60%
11%
Farage 60–70%
24%
Farage 70–80%
33%
Farage 80%+
30%
Farage 70–80% 32.8%
Farage 80%+ 30%
Farage 60–70% 24%
Farage 50–60% 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
$412 ปริมาณ
3%
Farage 40–50%
$544 ปริมาณ
4%
Farage 50–60%
$690 ปริมาณ
11%
Farage 60–70%
$600 ปริมาณ
24%
Farage 70–80%
$1,509 ปริมาณ
33%
Farage 80%+
$2,159 ปริมาณ
30%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Recent developments center on Nigel Farage’s July 2026 resignation as Clacton MP to force a by-election he intends to contest, framed as a “people versus establishment” vote amid scrutiny over unregistered donations and finances. Major parties including Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats have declined to field candidates, leaving Reform UK’s incumbent facing minimal organized opposition in the Essex constituency he captured with 46.2% in 2024. Public polling shows broad opposition to the by-election itself, yet Reform voters back the move. These factors support trader consensus on Farage securing over 50% of the vote, while closely matched prices across the 40-70% buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout, protest votes, and any residual impact from financial questions in an otherwise low-contest race.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,914วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Recent developments center on Nigel Farage’s July 2026 resignation as Clacton MP to force a by-election he intends to contest, framed as a “people versus establishment” vote amid scrutiny over unregistered donations and finances. Major parties including Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats have declined to field candidates, leaving Reform UK’s incumbent facing minimal organized opposition in the Essex constituency he captured with 46.2% in 2024. Public polling shows broad opposition to the by-election itself, yet Reform voters back the move. These factors support trader consensus on Farage securing over 50% of the vote, while closely matched prices across the 40-70% buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout, protest votes, and any residual impact from financial questions in an otherwise low-contest race.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,914วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments center on Nigel Farage’s July 2026 resignation as Clacton MP to force a by-election he intends to contest, framed as a “people versus establishment” vote amid scrutiny over unregistered donations and finances. Major parties including Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats have declined to field candidates, leaving Reform UK’s incumbent facing minimal organized opposition in the Essex constituency he captured with 46.2% in 2024. Public polling shows broad opposition to the by-election itself, yet Reform voters back the move. These factors support trader consensus on Farage securing over 50% of the vote, while closely matched prices across the 40-70% buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout, protest votes, and any residual impact from financial questions in an otherwise low-contest race.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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