Prince Andrew faces an active UK police investigation into alleged misconduct in public office tied to his past Epstein connections, following his February 2026 arrest and release without charge. Traders assign 97.5% probability to no prison sentence primarily because no criminal charges have been filed, prosecutions of high-profile figures require extensive evidence and procedural steps, and prior civil resolutions have not produced convictions. Key barriers include the timeline for any potential charging decisions, evidentiary thresholds, and institutional protections around former royals. Realistic shifts could occur if Thames Valley Police secure new witness statements from US visits, file indictments, or if related court rulings accelerate proceedings within the market's resolution window.