**Andy Burnham leads the market at 76.7% because he is the Labour candidate in the Makerfield by-election scheduled for 18 June 2026, a contest widely viewed as the pathway for him to re-enter Parliament and mount a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer.** Labour’s weaker-than-expected local election results earlier in 2026 triggered internal party pressure on Starmer’s position, elevating Burnham—currently Greater Manchester mayor—as the most credible immediate alternative within the governing party. Traders price “No Next PM in 2026” at 13.0% to reflect the possibility that Starmer retains the role through the year or that any transition occurs later. Lower-priced names such as Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting and others trail because none currently holds a comparable near-term route to a parliamentary seat and leadership contest. The outcome hinges on Burnham securing the seat and subsequent Labour parliamentary arithmetic, with the by-election serving as the dominant near-term catalyst.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAndy Burnham Outlines Devolution-Led Economic Vision for Britain
Andy Burnham jumps to 98%5%
Incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham set out his plans to transform the British economy through devolution, solidifying his transition into Downing Street.
Andy Burnham nears certainty as next UK Prime Minister in market pricing
Andy Burnham rises to 98%3%
Market prices for Andy Burnham reached 98% by late June 2026, reflecting near consensus that he will be appointed Prime Minister by the end of the year, following the leadership transition process and endorsements within Labour.
Andy Burnham to deliver major economic speech outlining vision for UK
Andy Burnham rises to 98%2%
Andy Burnham prepared to deliver a landmark speech on economic policy, emphasizing devolution, regional empowerment, and public ownership. This speech was seen as a key step in defining his leadership agenda ahead of becoming Prime Minister, influencing market expectations positively.
Andy Burnham emerges as overwhelming favorite to become next UK Prime Minister
Andy Burnham rises to 98%1%
Market prices surged to near certainty for Andy Burnham as the next Prime Minister, reflecting broad consensus and media reports about his imminent appointment following the leadership transition process.
Wes Streeting withdraws from Labour leadership race endorsing Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham surges to 97%34%
Wes Streeting, a prominent Labour figure and potential leadership contender, withdrew from the race and endorsed Andy Burnham, significantly boosting Burnham's chances and market price.
Poll shows Andy Burnham favored over Nigel Farage as better Prime Minister
A YouGov poll indicated that 43% of respondents preferred Andy Burnham as the better Prime Minister compared to 23% for Nigel Farage, doubling the lead previously held by Keir Starmer. This poll reinforced market confidence in Burnham's likelihood of becoming Prime Minister.
Andy Burnham poised to become UK Prime Minister after Starmer resignation
Andy Burnham surges to 95%37%
Following Starmer's resignation and Burnham's by-election victory, media reports widely identified Burnham as the likely next Prime Minister, further solidifying market confidence in his appointment.
Keir Starmer formally announces timetable for departure and supports Burnham
Andy Burnham surges to 94%32%
Starmer publicly set out a timetable for his departure and pledged full support to Burnham, signaling a smooth transition and reinforcing market expectations that Burnham would soon be appointed prime minister.
Wes Streeting endorses Andy Burnham for Labour leadership
Andy Burnham dips to 1%1%
Wes Streeting publicly backed Andy Burnham for Labour leader and next Prime Minister, effectively ending his own leadership bid and consolidating support behind Burnham, which further solidified Burnham's dominant market position.
Wes Streeting Endorses Andy Burnham for Labour Leadership
Wes Streeting publicly endorsed Andy Burnham for Labour leadership, effectively consolidating support and clearing the path for Burnham's unchallenged ascension to Prime Minister.
Andy Burnham meets Keir Starmer to discuss orderly transition of power
Andy Burnham rises to 98%2%
Following the leadership announcement, Andy Burnham met with outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer to discuss the transition process. This meeting reinforced market confidence in a smooth handover and Burnham's imminent appointment as Prime Minister.
Andy Burnham officially declares bid to succeed Keir Starmer as Labour leader
Andy Burnham surges to 63%17%
Following Starmer's resignation, Andy Burnham declared his candidacy for Labour leadership, consolidating support from party members and key figures like Wes Streeting, which further increased his market probability.
Darren Jones and Al Carns Struggle to Mount Leadership Challenges Against Burnham
Al Carns drops to 0%5%
Potential leadership rivals Darren Jones and Al Carns struggled to gather the necessary nominations from 81 MPs, clearing the path for an uncontested coronation of Andy Burnham.
Reports highlight Andy Burnham as likely next UK Prime Minister
Andy Burnham rises to 97%4%
Following Starmer's resignation and Burnham's by-election victory, multiple media outlets reported that Burnham is poised to become the next UK Prime Minister. These reports reinforced market confidence in Burnham's ascension, pushing his price near certainty.
Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham hold meeting to discuss transition
Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham met to discuss the transition of power following Starmer's resignation. The meeting was described as frosty, reflecting tensions between the two, but it was a necessary step to ensure an orderly handover. This event supported the market's expectation of Burnham's imminent appointment.
Keir Starmer announces resignation amid mounting party pressure
Andy Burnham surges to 97%28%
Following sustained internal party pressure and Burnham's by-election victory, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation plan, clearing the way for Burnham to become the next Labour leader and likely Prime Minister. This announcement caused Burnham's market probability to surge to near certainty.
Keir Starmer Announces Plan to Resign as UK Prime Minister
Andy Burnham surges to 97%30%
Amid mounting pressure and following Andy Burnham's by-election victory, Keir Starmer announced plans to step down as Prime Minister. This announcement confirmed Burnham as the likely successor, causing his market price to peak.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer Announces Resignation Plan
Keir Starmer announced his plan to resign as Prime Minister amid mounting internal party pressure and poor public approval, paving the way for Andy Burnham to become the next Prime Minister.
Keir Starmer resigns as UK Prime Minister amid local election defeats
Andy Burnham surges to 46%39%
Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister and Labour leader following severe local election losses, creating a leadership vacancy and triggering a succession race within the Labour Party. This event caused a sharp increase in market confidence for Andy Burnham as the likely successor.
Wes Streeting endorses Andy Burnham for Labour leadership
Andy Burnham dips to 1%1%
Wes Streeting withdrew from the leadership race and publicly endorsed Andy Burnham, consolidating support behind Burnham and diminishing his own market chances.
Keir Starmer announces resignation as UK Prime Minister
Andy Burnham surges to 60%44%
Facing mounting pressure from within his own Labour Party after poor local election results and political scandals, Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister and Labour leader. This announcement cleared the path for Andy Burnham, the newly elected MP for Makerfield, to become the likely successor, causing a sharp rise in Burnham's market price.
Andy Burnham confirms bid to succeed Keir Starmer as Labour leader and UK Prime Minister
Andy Burnham surges to 98%41%
On the day of Starmer's resignation announcement, Andy Burnham confirmed he would stand in the Labour leadership contest, positioning himself as the frontrunner. Former rival Wes Streeting endorsed Burnham, increasing the likelihood of an uncontested leadership and Burnham's ascension to Prime Minister.
Keir Starmer resigns as UK Prime Minister amid party pressure and poor election results
Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister and Labour leader following mounting pressure from within his party after significant losses in local elections. This triggered a leadership contest and opened the path for a successor to be appointed, causing a major shift in the market.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces resignation
Andy Burnham surges to 96%31%
Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister amid mounting pressure and poor election results, clearing the way for Andy Burnham to become the next Prime Minister, causing Burnham's market price to surge to near certainty.
Andy Burnham sworn in as MP for Makerfield, positioning him for Labour leadership
Andy Burnham jumps to 62%9%
Burnham was officially sworn in as the Member of Parliament for Makerfield, fulfilling a key requirement to stand for Labour leadership and become prime minister. This formal step was critical in the market's surge of confidence in his eventual appointment.
Keir Starmer Resigns as Prime Minister as Andy Burnham Sworn In
Andy Burnham jumps to 98%5%
Keir Starmer officially announced his resignation outside Downing Street, while Andy Burnham returned to Westminster to be sworn in as an MP, positioning him as the clear successor.
Keir Starmer announces resignation as UK Prime Minister and Labour leader
Following mounting pressure from within the Labour Party after poor local election results and Burnham's by-election victory, Keir Starmer announced his resignation. He stated he would remain in office until a successor was chosen, triggering a leadership contest and causing a sharp market shift favoring Burnham.
Wes Streeting abandons leadership bid and endorses Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham surges to 77%71%
Wes Streeting, initially a leadership contender, withdrew from the race and publicly endorsed Andy Burnham, consolidating support behind Burnham and increasing his likelihood of becoming Labour leader and Prime Minister.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper calls on Keir Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
Yvette Cooper dips to 0%1%
Yvette Cooper publicly urged Prime Minister Starmer to step down following Burnham's by-election victory and mounting internal party pressure, further destabilizing Starmer's position and diminishing her own market prospects.
Keir Starmer expected to announce resignation amid mounting pressure
Andy Burnham surges to 93%28%
Following Burnham's by-election victory and growing internal party pressure, reports emerged that Keir Starmer was reflecting on his political future and expected to announce his resignation soon, further solidifying Burnham's position as the next Prime Minister.
Andy Burnham secures support of over 200 Labour MPs for leadership challenge
Andy Burnham surges to 66%23%
Following his by-election victory, Andy Burnham gained the backing of more than 200 Labour MPs, surpassing the 20% threshold needed to trigger a leadership contest, increasing pressure on Keir Starmer to resign.
Andy Burnham wins Makerfield by-election, boosting leadership bid
Andy Burnham jumps to 8%5%
Andy Burnham's landslide victory in the Makerfield by-election re-established him as an MP and significantly strengthened his position as the frontrunner to become the next Prime Minister, leading to a rise in his market price.
Andy Burnham wins Makerfield by-election, returns to Parliament
Andy Burnham surges to 52%23%
Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, enabling him to stand for Labour leadership and significantly boosting his chances to become the next Prime Minister, reflected in a sharp market price increase.
Defence Secretary John Healey and Al Carns Resign Over Defence Spending Plan
Al Carns dips to 1%4%
Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns resigned in protest of Keir Starmer's decision to limit funding for the Defence Investment Plan, severely damaging Starmer's authority.
Nigel Farage Declares Desire to Become UK Prime Minister
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage publicly stated he wants to be Prime Minister, claiming he has the public rapport and courage to challenge the establishment. Despite this, his market price remained low due to limited political pathway and competition.
Nigel Farage Claims He Is Only Person With Enough Courage to Be Prime Minister
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage publicly claimed he is the only person with enough public rapport and courage to be Prime Minister, though his market probability remained low amid Labour's internal crisis.
Al Carns Resigns as Armed Forces Minister, Hints at Labour Leadership Challenge
Al Carns dips to 1%2%
Al Carns resigned over defence spending disagreements and publicly hinted at a possible leadership challenge to Keir Starmer, briefly raising his profile as a potential next prime minister, though his market price remained low.
Supporters urge Labour MPs to consider Al Carns as alternative PM candidate
Al Carns dips to 1%4%
Following his resignation as Armed Forces Minister, Al Carns gained attention as a potential dark horse candidate for Labour leadership, though his market price remained low due to limited support.
Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns resign over defence spending
Al Carns dips to 1%1%
John Healey and Al Carns resigned from government over disagreements on defence investment plans, signaling internal party dissent and raising Al Carns' profile as a potential leadership contender.
Ed Miliband pushes to be Chancellor under potential Burnham premiership
Ed Miliband publicly positioned himself to be Chancellor if Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister, signaling internal Labour party dynamics and leadership preparations ahead of Starmer's expected resignation.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns over tax scandal
Angela Rayner drops to 0%8%
Angela Rayner resigned as Deputy Prime Minister following an ethics investigation into unpaid property tax, leading to a collapse in her market price and diminishing her leadership prospects.
Labour suffers heavy losses to Reform UK in local elections, increasing pressure on Starmer
In the May 2026 local elections, the far-right Reform UK party made historic gains, particularly in areas like Makerfield, undermining Labour's support and intensifying internal party pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This political setback set the stage for leadership challenges and increased market interest in alternative candidates like Andy Burnham.
Andy Burnham selected as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham rises to 15%2%
Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham as the candidate for the Makerfield by-election, bypassing a local vote. This formal selection was a key step enabling Burnham to re-enter Parliament and mount a leadership challenge.
Thirty Labour MPs call on Keir Starmer to resign after election losses
Following disastrous local and devolved election results, a significant number of Labour MPs publicly called for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign, intensifying the leadership crisis within the party.
Andy Burnham announces candidacy for Makerfield by-election to re-enter Parliament
Andy Burnham surges to 43%21%
Andy Burnham declared his intention to contest the Makerfield by-election, seen as the critical step to re-enter Parliament and mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer, significantly boosting his market price.
Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham surges to 43%23%
Labour MP Josh Simons announced his resignation to allow Andy Burnham to contest the Makerfield by-election, a critical step for Burnham to re-enter Parliament and mount a leadership challenge against Starmer. This announcement significantly boosted Burnham's market price.
Andy Burnham Wins Makerfield By-Election, Re-enters Parliament
Andy Burnham jumps to 14%10%
Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, securing a parliamentary seat that enabled him to challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership, significantly boosting his market odds as the next UK Prime Minister.
Wes Streeting officially announces bid to replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader
Wes Streeting jumps to 24%5%
Streeting publicly confirmed his leadership bid, calling for a proper contest to replace Starmer. This solidified his position as a main challenger but also highlighted divisions within Labour, affecting market pricing for leadership outcomes.
Andy Burnham confirms Labour leadership bid via Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 16%8%
Andy Burnham announced his intention to run for Labour leadership by contesting the Makerfield by-election, signaling a direct challenge to Keir Starmer and increasing his market probability significantly.
Andy Burnham confirms bid for Labour leadership and parliamentary seat
Andy Burnham jumps to 14%11%
Andy Burnham announced his intention to run for Labour leadership and contest the Makerfield by-election to enter Parliament, positioning himself as a leading candidate to replace Starmer.
Andy Burnham announces bid for Labour leadership via Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 13%10%
Andy Burnham declared his intention to run for the Labour leadership, seeking to return to Parliament by contesting the Makerfield by-election. This move positioned him as the main challenger to Starmer and significantly increased his market probability.
Andy Burnham announces candidacy for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 25%11%
Andy Burnham declared his intention to contest the Makerfield by-election, aiming to re-enter Parliament and position himself to challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership. This announcement significantly boosted market confidence in Burnham's chances to become Prime Minister.
Angela Rayner cleared of tax wrongdoing, raising her leadership profile
Angela Rayner rises to 14%4%
Angela Rayner was cleared by HMRC of deliberate wrongdoing in a tax scandal, making her eligible to run for Labour leadership and briefly increasing her market prospects. However, her price declined as Burnham's candidacy gained momentum.
Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 11%8%
Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham to stand as the candidate in the Makerfield by-election, providing him a path back to Parliament and eligibility to challenge for Labour leadership.
Angela Rayner cleared by HMRC, raising her profile as a leadership contender
Angela Rayner jumps to 15%5%
Angela Rayner was cleared of deliberate wrongdoing in a tax scandal, making her eligible to run for Labour leadership and briefly increasing her market prospects before her price declined as Burnham's momentum grew.
Wes Streeting resigns as Health Secretary, calls for leadership contest
Wes Streeting drops to 14%5%
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned citing lack of confidence in Keir Starmer's leadership, officially announcing his intention to run for Labour leadership. This increased pressure on Starmer and boosted speculation about leadership change, affecting market prices for challengers.
Josh Simons resigns as MP to trigger Makerfield by-election for Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham rises to 10%3%
Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to allow Andy Burnham to contest the Makerfield by-election, enabling Burnham to return to Parliament and become eligible to stand for Labour leadership, a key step in his bid to become Prime Minister.
Labour MP Josh Simons resigns to allow Andy Burnham to contest Makerfield by-election
Josh Simons stepped down to enable Andy Burnham to run in the Makerfield by-election, a critical step for Burnham to re-enter Parliament and mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer. This move was widely seen as a strategic effort to position Burnham as a viable successor.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing lost confidence in Keir Starmer
Wes Streeting resigned from his cabinet position, publicly stating he had lost confidence in Starmer's leadership and signaling growing internal Labour Party unrest. This resignation intensified calls for Starmer's departure and increased speculation about a leadership challenge, impacting market sentiment on the Prime Ministership.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, calls for leadership contest against Starmer
Wes Streeting resigned from the cabinet citing lack of confidence in Starmer's leadership, officially announcing his intention to challenge for Labour leadership, increasing pressure on Starmer and impacting market prices for leadership candidates.
Angela Rayner Cleared by HMRC Over Tax Dispute as Wes Streeting Resigns
Angela Rayner jumps to 21%10%
HMRC cleared Angela Rayner of wrongdoing in her stamp duty dispute, clearing her path to challenge for leadership, while Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned to join the scramble for the top spot.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, increasing pressure on Starmer
Wes Streeting resigned from the government, criticizing Starmer and signaling a leadership challenge. This resignation intensified speculation about Starmer's imminent departure and boosted odds of a leadership contest.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns amid Labour leadership crisis
Andy Burnham surges to 48%32%
Wes Streeting resigned from the government, criticizing Keir Starmer's leadership and increasing pressure for a leadership change. This event intensified speculation about Starmer's future and boosted prospects for leadership challengers like Andy Burnham.
Senior Labour ministers and MPs call for Keir Starmer to resign after local election losses
Following disastrous local election results in May 2026, over 70 Labour MPs and several cabinet ministers, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, publicly urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to set a timetable for his departure. This intensified speculation about Starmer's leadership and increased market expectations for a leadership change.
Keir Starmer vows stronger performance amid growing calls for resignation
Following disastrous local election results for Labour, Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged to improve his leadership and address public concerns, but faced increasing pressure to resign. This event marked the beginning of intensified scrutiny on Starmer's leadership, impacting market perceptions of his tenure.
UK PM Keir Starmer vows stronger performance amid calls for resignation
Following disastrous local election results for Labour, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faced growing calls to resign but vowed to improve his performance and reaffirmed his commitment to key policies, temporarily stabilizing his position.
Angela Rayner Declares Labour 'Isn't Working' and Backs Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham jumps to 29%9%
Former Deputy PM Angela Rayner released a statement criticizing Starmer's leadership and indicating she was backing Andy Burnham for the leadership, boosting Burnham's market odds.
Angela Rayner calls blocking Andy Burnham's return to Parliament a mistake
Andy Burnham rises to 22%2%
Angela Rayner publicly stated that blocking Andy Burnham's bid to return to Parliament was a mistake, signaling internal party support for Burnham and increasing his leadership prospects.
SNL UK airs satirical sketch featuring Nigel Farage as future Prime Minister
A comedy sketch on SNL UK portrayed Nigel Farage as Prime Minister in a dystopian future, reflecting public and media attention on Farage's political ambitions but not significantly affecting his market probability, which remained low.
Thirty Labour MPs Call on Keir Starmer to Resign After Humiliating Local Election Losses
Andy Burnham jumps to 29%9%
Following disastrous local election results where Labour lost over 1,400 councillors, backbenchers and junior figures revolted, demanding Starmer step down and triggering a major leadership crisis.
Over 30 Labour MPs call on Keir Starmer to resign after election losses
Following disastrous local election results, more than 30 Labour MPs publicly demanded Keir Starmer resign as Prime Minister, reflecting deep internal party dissatisfaction and escalating the leadership crisis.
Labour suffers historic losses in local and regional elections to Reform UK and Greens
Labour's poor performance in the May 2026 local and regional elections, losing significant ground to Nigel Farage's Reform UK and the Green Party, intensified internal party dissatisfaction and weakened Keir Starmer's leadership position, setting the stage for leadership challenges.
Reform UK Makes Historic Gains in Local Elections, Undermining Labour Support
Nigel Farage drops to 1%6%
The far-right Reform UK party made significant gains in the May 2026 local elections, particularly in areas like Makerfield, weakening Labour's position and increasing pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, contributing to leadership instability.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and PM Starmer visit Jewish community after attack
Following a terrorist stabbing attack in Golders Green, Shabana Mahmood and Keir Starmer visited the Jewish community, highlighting government response and Mahmood's role as Home Secretary during a turbulent period.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood Resigns and Defects to Reform UK
Shabana Mahmood dips to 0%2%
Shabana Mahmood resigned as Home Secretary and defected to Reform UK, criticizing PM Starmer and Labour's policies. This unexpected move diminished her chances of becoming Prime Minister and caused her market price to drop sharply.
Shabana Mahmood rises as potential Labour successor amid Epstein scandal
Shabana Mahmood rises to 10%3%
Following the resignation of Keir Starmer's chief of staff over the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson linked to Jeffrey Epstein, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood emerged as a leading contender for Labour leadership, increasing speculation about Starmer's future and boosting Mahmood's market prospects.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Keir Starmer to resign
Anas Sarwar publicly called for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign, citing leadership distractions and mistakes undermining Labour's prospects ahead of the May elections. This was one of the first senior Labour figures to demand Starmer's departure, increasing pressure on his leadership.
Epstein scandal triggers Labour leadership speculation, boosting Shabana Mahmood
Shabana Mahmood rises to 10%3%
Following the resignation of Keir Starmer's chief of staff over the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson, Labour leadership speculation intensified. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood emerged as a leading contender, raising her profile and market interest amid the party's internal crisis.
Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar Calls on Keir Starmer to Resign
Anas Sarwar became the most senior Labour figure to call for Starmer's resignation following a crisis over Peter Mandelson's links to Jeffrey Epstein, causing a febrile atmosphere and shifting leadership expectations.
Starmer’s Chief of Staff Resigns Over Mandelson Appointment Amid Epstein Scandal
Shabana Mahmood rises to 10%3%
Morgan McSweeney resigned after taking responsibility for appointing Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US, a decision criticized due to Mandelson's links to Jeffrey Epstein. This scandal weakened Prime Minister Keir Starmer's position and intensified internal party pressure.
Epstein files scandal shakes UK government, pressuring PM Keir Starmer
Revelations linking Peter Mandelson to Jeffrey Epstein led to resignations within Starmer's government, including his Chief of Staff, intensifying calls for Starmer's resignation and elevating Shabana Mahmood as a potential successor.
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