Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3 has driven recent trader sentiment on Polymarket, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter model reporting 56% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) using tools and 43.5% without—placing it near the top of public leaderboards behind only select OpenAI GPT-5.5 variants. This follows incremental gains from earlier Kimi releases and agentic variants like Kimi-Researcher. HLE's 2,500 expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities make further gains difficult, though Moonshot's open-source strategy and large context window support ongoing fine-tuning and tool-use improvements through year-end. Key swing factors include potential Kimi K4 iterations, benchmark methodology clarifications, and responses from U.S. labs ahead of major developer conferences.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
76%
50%+
31%
55%+
25%
60%+
18%
65%+
10%
$504 ปริมาณ
45%+
$0 ปริมาณ
76%
50%+
$206 ปริมาณ
31%
55%+
$25 ปริมาณ
25%
60%+
$25 ปริมาณ
18%
65%+
$248 ปริมาณ
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3 has driven recent trader sentiment on Polymarket, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter model reporting 56% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) using tools and 43.5% without—placing it near the top of public leaderboards behind only select OpenAI GPT-5.5 variants. This follows incremental gains from earlier Kimi releases and agentic variants like Kimi-Researcher. HLE's 2,500 expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities make further gains difficult, though Moonshot's open-source strategy and large context window support ongoing fine-tuning and tool-use improvements through year-end. Key swing factors include potential Kimi K4 iterations, benchmark methodology clarifications, and responses from U.S. labs ahead of major developer conferences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$504วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3 has driven recent trader sentiment on Polymarket, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter model reporting 56% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) using tools and 43.5% without—placing it near the top of public leaderboards behind only select OpenAI GPT-5.5 variants. This follows incremental gains from earlier Kimi releases and agentic variants like Kimi-Researcher. HLE's 2,500 expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities make further gains difficult, though Moonshot's open-source strategy and large context window support ongoing fine-tuning and tool-use improvements through year-end. Key swing factors include potential Kimi K4 iterations, benchmark methodology clarifications, and responses from U.S. labs ahead of major developer conferences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$504วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3 has driven recent trader sentiment on Polymarket, with the 2.8-trillion-parameter model reporting 56% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) using tools and 43.5% without—placing it near the top of public leaderboards behind only select OpenAI GPT-5.5 variants. This follows incremental gains from earlier Kimi releases and agentic variants like Kimi-Researcher. HLE's 2,500 expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities make further gains difficult, though Moonshot's open-source strategy and large context window support ongoing fine-tuning and tool-use improvements through year-end. Key swing factors include potential Kimi K4 iterations, benchmark methodology clarifications, and responses from U.S. labs ahead of major developer conferences.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย