Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 release in early September 2026 has driven its strong 74.5% market-implied probability by securing top composite scores and category leads across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Multiple leaderboards currently rank its variants ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini models, reflecting sustained capability gains and internal use of Claude for R&D acceleration. With roughly two months until the November resolution, traders are pricing in continuity of this edge absent major rival launches, though product timelines in frontier AI remain subject to rapid shifts from new model drops or benchmark updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnthropic 75%
Google 9%
Meta 8%
Amazon 4.8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
75%
9%
Meta
8%
Amazon
5%
Meituan
3%
StepFun
3%
Thinky
3%
Nvidia
3%
OpenAI
2%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
2%
Tencent
1%
ByteDance
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Anthropic 75%
Google 9%
Meta 8%
Amazon 4.8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$1,221 ปริมาณ
75%
$188 ปริมาณ
9%
Meta
$194 ปริมาณ
8%
Amazon
$191 ปริมาณ
5%
Meituan
$191 ปริมาณ
3%
StepFun
$191 ปริมาณ
3%
Thinky
$193 ปริมาณ
3%
Nvidia
$180 ปริมาณ
3%
OpenAI
$182 ปริมาณ
2%
Moonshot
$182 ปริมาณ
2%
Alibaba
$160 ปริมาณ
2%
Tencent
$186 ปริมาณ
1%
ByteDance
$131 ปริมาณ
1%
SpaceXAI
$170 ปริมาณ
1%
Z.ai
$187 ปริมาณ
1%
Baidu
$140 ปริมาณ
1%
Xiaomi
$190 ปริมาณ
1%
DeepSeek
$191 ปริมาณ
1%
MiniMax
$191 ปริมาณ
1%
Mistral
$231 ปริมาณ
1%
Microsoft
$260 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 release in early September 2026 has driven its strong 74.5% market-implied probability by securing top composite scores and category leads across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Multiple leaderboards currently rank its variants ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini models, reflecting sustained capability gains and internal use of Claude for R&D acceleration. With roughly two months until the November resolution, traders are pricing in continuity of this edge absent major rival launches, though product timelines in frontier AI remain subject to rapid shifts from new model drops or benchmark updates.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,949วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 release in early September 2026 has driven its strong 74.5% market-implied probability by securing top composite scores and category leads across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Multiple leaderboards currently rank its variants ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini models, reflecting sustained capability gains and internal use of Claude for R&D acceleration. With roughly two months until the November resolution, traders are pricing in continuity of this edge absent major rival launches, though product timelines in frontier AI remain subject to rapid shifts from new model drops or benchmark updates.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,949วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 release in early September 2026 has driven its strong 74.5% market-implied probability by securing top composite scores and category leads across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Multiple leaderboards currently rank its variants ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini models, reflecting sustained capability gains and internal use of Claude for R&D acceleration. With roughly two months until the November resolution, traders are pricing in continuity of this edge absent major rival launches, though product timelines in frontier AI remain subject to rapid shifts from new model drops or benchmark updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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