Latest ensemble forecasts from global models including ECMWF and GFS, aligned with Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance, show Buenos Aires under persistent southeasterly flow with increasing cloud cover and scattered showers on October 14, supporting a maximum near 19°C. This setup favors modest daytime warming typical of early spring in the region, where onshore winds limit peaks despite seasonal insolation. Model spreads reflect uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of any brief clearing versus continued marine influence or light precipitation, keeping outcomes clustered between 18–21°C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 19–20°C, consistent with current observational trends and short-range guidance. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria around peak temperature thresholds.