**Trader sentiment for Chengdu's August 4 high temperature centers on the 31–34°C range, with 33°C holding the narrowest lead at 26% implied probability.** Short-range forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate a daytime high near 32°C (90°F) under partly cloudy to showery conditions, consistent with typical early-August patterns in the Sichuan Basin. Chengdu’s subtropical monsoon climate produces hot, humid summers with average August highs of 30–32°C; localized convection and afternoon thunderstorms—common in the region—can cap temperatures by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Recent model consensus points to moderate moisture and light steering winds that favor scattered showers rather than clear, intense heating, keeping extreme values (35°C+) at low probability while supporting the clustered 31–34°C outcomes. Historical analogs show daily maxima in this window occur frequently, but small shifts in timing or intensity of precipitation introduce genuine uncertainty reflected in the closely matched odds. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance over the next 48 hours will likely drive any market movement.