**Forecast models for Moscow on August 4, 2026, currently cluster daily maximum temperatures near 25–27°C, producing closely matched market probabilities (26°C at 24.0%, 25°C at 20.5%, 27°C at 17.5%).** This narrow spread arises from typical ensemble uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction two days ahead. Key variables include the precise strength and position of any high-pressure ridge over European Russia, which favors clear skies and daytime heating, versus modest increases in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture that could limit peak values by 1–2°C. Surface wind direction and speed further differentiate outcomes: light southerly flow can advect slightly warmer continental air, while northerly shifts or stronger mixing lower the maximum. Official guidance from sources such as ECMWF and GFS ensembles shows most members within this 24–28°C window, with tails below 23°C or above 28°C receiving lower probabilities consistent with the market’s 3% or less for 29°C+. Updated model runs and satellite-derived temperature observations over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread as the event approaches.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Moscow on August 4?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 4?
26°C 37%
25°C 26%
27°C 21%
24°C 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 4, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
12%
24°C
16%
25°C
26%
26°C
28%
27°C
21%
28°C
5%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
4%
26°C 37%
25°C 26%
27°C 21%
24°C 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 4, 2026
20°C or below
$5 ปริมาณ
<1%
21°C
$15 ปริมาณ
1%
22°C
$37 ปริมาณ
3%
23°C
$25 ปริมาณ
12%
24°C
$0 ปริมาณ
16%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
21%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
29°C
$15 ปริมาณ
3%
30°C or higher
$32 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Moscow on August 4, 2026, currently cluster daily maximum temperatures near 25–27°C, producing closely matched market probabilities (26°C at 24.0%, 25°C at 20.5%, 27°C at 17.5%).** This narrow spread arises from typical ensemble uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction two days ahead. Key variables include the precise strength and position of any high-pressure ridge over European Russia, which favors clear skies and daytime heating, versus modest increases in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture that could limit peak values by 1–2°C.
Surface wind direction and speed further differentiate outcomes: light southerly flow can advect slightly warmer continental air, while northerly shifts or stronger mixing lower the maximum. Official guidance from sources such as ECMWF and GFS ensembles shows most members within this 24–28°C window, with tails below 23°C or above 28°C receiving lower probabilities consistent with the market’s 3% or less for 29°C+. Updated model runs and satellite-derived temperature observations over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread as the event approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$129วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Moscow on August 4, 2026, currently cluster daily maximum temperatures near 25–27°C, producing closely matched market probabilities (26°C at 24.0%, 25°C at 20.5%, 27°C at 17.5%).** This narrow spread arises from typical ensemble uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction two days ahead. Key variables include the precise strength and position of any high-pressure ridge over European Russia, which favors clear skies and daytime heating, versus modest increases in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture that could limit peak values by 1–2°C.
Surface wind direction and speed further differentiate outcomes: light southerly flow can advect slightly warmer continental air, while northerly shifts or stronger mixing lower the maximum. Official guidance from sources such as ECMWF and GFS ensembles shows most members within this 24–28°C window, with tails below 23°C or above 28°C receiving lower probabilities consistent with the market’s 3% or less for 29°C+. Updated model runs and satellite-derived temperature observations over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread as the event approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$129วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models for Moscow on August 4, 2026, currently cluster daily maximum temperatures near 25–27°C, producing closely matched market probabilities (26°C at 24.0%, 25°C at 20.5%, 27°C at 17.5%).** This narrow spread arises from typical ensemble uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction two days ahead. Key variables include the precise strength and position of any high-pressure ridge over European Russia, which favors clear skies and daytime heating, versus modest increases in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture that could limit peak values by 1–2°C. Surface wind direction and speed further differentiate outcomes: light southerly flow can advect slightly warmer continental air, while northerly shifts or stronger mixing lower the maximum. Official guidance from sources such as ECMWF and GFS ensembles shows most members within this 24–28°C window, with tails below 23°C or above 28°C receiving lower probabilities consistent with the market’s 3% or less for 29°C+. Updated model runs and satellite-derived temperature observations over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread as the event approaches.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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