Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 19?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 19?
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$34,334 ปริมาณ
$34,334 ปริมาณ
Aug 19, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$34,334 ปริมาณ
$34,334 ปริมาณ
Aug 19, 2026
23°C or below
$250 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$3,705 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$1,854 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$6,139 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$8,076 ปริมาณ
Yes
28°C
$4,564 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$4,104 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$3,783 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$798 ปริมาณ
No
32°C
$524 ปริมาณ
No
33°C or higher
$536 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,334วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,334วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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