Recent heavy rainfall through September 21 has saturated the region and suppressed daytime heating, but clearing skies and northwest winds on the 22nd are expected to reduce cloud cover and humidity, supporting a rebound in maximum temperatures. Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources converge on highs near 28–30 °C, with some runs reaching 31–32 °C under stronger insolation and drier advection. Historical September baselines for Tokyo average around 27–29 °C, providing context for the current setup. Market-implied odds, with 30 °C leading at 33.5 % and 31 °C at 26.5 %, reflect traders weighing model consensus against remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind strength, with new observational data and updated runs likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 22?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 22?
30°C 34%
31°C 27%
29°C 20%
32°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 22, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
8%
29°C
20%
30°C
34%
31°C
27%
32°C
8%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 34%
31°C 27%
29°C 20%
32°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 22, 2026
25°C or below
$212 ปริมาณ
2%
26°C
$216 ปริมาณ
2%
27°C
$279 ปริมาณ
4%
28°C
$410 ปริมาณ
8%
29°C
$307 ปริมาณ
20%
30°C
$158 ปริมาณ
34%
31°C
$284 ปริมาณ
27%
32°C
$317 ปริมาณ
8%
33°C
$149 ปริมาณ
2%
34°C
$40 ปริมาณ
1%
35°C or higher
$111 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall through September 21 has saturated the region and suppressed daytime heating, but clearing skies and northwest winds on the 22nd are expected to reduce cloud cover and humidity, supporting a rebound in maximum temperatures. Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources converge on highs near 28–30 °C, with some runs reaching 31–32 °C under stronger insolation and drier advection. Historical September baselines for Tokyo average around 27–29 °C, providing context for the current setup. Market-implied odds, with 30 °C leading at 33.5 % and 31 °C at 26.5 %, reflect traders weighing model consensus against remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind strength, with new observational data and updated runs likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,484วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 22, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall through September 21 has saturated the region and suppressed daytime heating, but clearing skies and northwest winds on the 22nd are expected to reduce cloud cover and humidity, supporting a rebound in maximum temperatures. Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources converge on highs near 28–30 °C, with some runs reaching 31–32 °C under stronger insolation and drier advection. Historical September baselines for Tokyo average around 27–29 °C, providing context for the current setup. Market-implied odds, with 30 °C leading at 33.5 % and 31 °C at 26.5 %, reflect traders weighing model consensus against remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind strength, with new observational data and updated runs likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,484วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 22, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent heavy rainfall through September 21 has saturated the region and suppressed daytime heating, but clearing skies and northwest winds on the 22nd are expected to reduce cloud cover and humidity, supporting a rebound in maximum temperatures. Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources converge on highs near 28–30 °C, with some runs reaching 31–32 °C under stronger insolation and drier advection. Historical September baselines for Tokyo average around 27–29 °C, providing context for the current setup. Market-implied odds, with 30 °C leading at 33.5 % and 31 °C at 26.5 %, reflect traders weighing model consensus against remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind strength, with new observational data and updated runs likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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