Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover on September 11, supporting strong daytime heating under late-summer insolation and yielding an expected maximum near 30–31°C. This stable high-pressure pattern, with low humidity and negligible precipitation risk, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 31°C at 54% implied probability and 30°C at 34.5%. Ensemble consistency across short-range forecasts has reinforced trader confidence in this narrow range, though small shifts in boundary-layer mixing or advection could still allow 32°C or a dip to 29°C. Above-normal warmth relative to the September climatological average of roughly 27°C further anchors current sentiment ahead of final model updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
31°C 56%
30°C 35%
29°C 16%
33°C 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
5%
29°C
16%
30°C
35%
31°C
56%
32°C
10%
33°C
16%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 56%
30°C 35%
29°C 16%
33°C 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
3%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
29°C
$9 ปริมาณ
16%
30°C
$114 ปริมาณ
35%
31°C
$536 ปริมาณ
56%
32°C
$0 ปริมาณ
10%
33°C
$0 ปริมาณ
16%
34°C
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
35°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover on September 11, supporting strong daytime heating under late-summer insolation and yielding an expected maximum near 30–31°C. This stable high-pressure pattern, with low humidity and negligible precipitation risk, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 31°C at 54% implied probability and 30°C at 34.5%. Ensemble consistency across short-range forecasts has reinforced trader confidence in this narrow range, though small shifts in boundary-layer mixing or advection could still allow 32°C or a dip to 29°C. Above-normal warmth relative to the September climatological average of roughly 27°C further anchors current sentiment ahead of final model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$659วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover on September 11, supporting strong daytime heating under late-summer insolation and yielding an expected maximum near 30–31°C. This stable high-pressure pattern, with low humidity and negligible precipitation risk, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 31°C at 54% implied probability and 30°C at 34.5%. Ensemble consistency across short-range forecasts has reinforced trader confidence in this narrow range, though small shifts in boundary-layer mixing or advection could still allow 32°C or a dip to 29°C. Above-normal warmth relative to the September climatological average of roughly 27°C further anchors current sentiment ahead of final model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$659วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover on September 11, supporting strong daytime heating under late-summer insolation and yielding an expected maximum near 30–31°C. This stable high-pressure pattern, with low humidity and negligible precipitation risk, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 31°C at 54% implied probability and 30°C at 34.5%. Ensemble consistency across short-range forecasts has reinforced trader confidence in this narrow range, though small shifts in boundary-layer mixing or advection could still allow 32°C or a dip to 29°C. Above-normal warmth relative to the September climatological average of roughly 27°C further anchors current sentiment ahead of final model updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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