Recent cooling after mid-August's heatwave, which peaked near 38°C around August 13, has shifted model guidance toward moderate highs for Paris on August 19. Short-range ensembles from Météo-France and ECMWF currently cluster daily maxima around 21–24°C under variable high pressure and northwesterly flow, with typical uncertainty of ±1–2°C explaining the near-even 19% market shares across 20–24°C outcomes. Key differentiators include the timing of any weak frontal passage, boundary-layer mixing, and the strength of the urban heat island effect, all of which can swing the verified maximum by 1–3°C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z model runs against climatological August baselines near 24–25°C while awaiting updated guidance ahead of the August 19 resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Paris on August 19?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 19?
23°C 22%
24°C 22%
22°C 15%
25°C 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 19, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
6%
22°C
15%
23°C
22%
24°C
22%
25°C
11%
26°C
4%
27°C
3%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
1%
23°C 22%
24°C 22%
22°C 15%
25°C 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 19, 2026
19°C or below
$5 ปริมาณ
1%
20°C
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
6%
22°C
$100 ปริมาณ
15%
23°C
$0 ปริมาณ
22%
24°C
$0 ปริมาณ
22%
25°C
$31 ปริมาณ
11%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
27°C
$3 ปริมาณ
3%
28°C
$5 ปริมาณ
1%
29°C or higher
$5 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling after mid-August's heatwave, which peaked near 38°C around August 13, has shifted model guidance toward moderate highs for Paris on August 19. Short-range ensembles from Météo-France and ECMWF currently cluster daily maxima around 21–24°C under variable high pressure and northwesterly flow, with typical uncertainty of ±1–2°C explaining the near-even 19% market shares across 20–24°C outcomes. Key differentiators include the timing of any weak frontal passage, boundary-layer mixing, and the strength of the urban heat island effect, all of which can swing the verified maximum by 1–3°C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z model runs against climatological August baselines near 24–25°C while awaiting updated guidance ahead of the August 19 resolution window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling after mid-August's heatwave, which peaked near 38°C around August 13, has shifted model guidance toward moderate highs for Paris on August 19. Short-range ensembles from Météo-France and ECMWF currently cluster daily maxima around 21–24°C under variable high pressure and northwesterly flow, with typical uncertainty of ±1–2°C explaining the near-even 19% market shares across 20–24°C outcomes. Key differentiators include the timing of any weak frontal passage, boundary-layer mixing, and the strength of the urban heat island effect, all of which can swing the verified maximum by 1–3°C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z model runs against climatological August baselines near 24–25°C while awaiting updated guidance ahead of the August 19 resolution window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooling after mid-August's heatwave, which peaked near 38°C around August 13, has shifted model guidance toward moderate highs for Paris on August 19. Short-range ensembles from Météo-France and ECMWF currently cluster daily maxima around 21–24°C under variable high pressure and northwesterly flow, with typical uncertainty of ±1–2°C explaining the near-even 19% market shares across 20–24°C outcomes. Key differentiators include the timing of any weak frontal passage, boundary-layer mixing, and the strength of the urban heat island effect, all of which can swing the verified maximum by 1–3°C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z model runs against climatological August baselines near 24–25°C while awaiting updated guidance ahead of the August 19 resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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