Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?
28°C 34%
27°C 29%
29°C 16%
26°C 13%
ใหม่
$21,802 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$21,802 ปริมาณ
Jul 1, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
13%
27°C
29%
28°C
34%
29°C
16%
30°C
5%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 34%
27°C 29%
29°C 16%
26°C 13%
ใหม่
$21,802 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$21,802 ปริมาณ
Jul 1, 2026
22°C or below
$5,312 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$1,472 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$696 ปริมาณ
1%
25°C
$573 ปริมาณ
4%
26°C
$816 ปริมาณ
13%
27°C
$4,928 ปริมาณ
29%
28°C
$3,779 ปริมาณ
34%
29°C
$1,227 ปริมาณ
16%
30°C
$743 ปริมาณ
5%
31°C
$515 ปริมาณ
2%
32°C or higher
$1,742 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,802วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,802วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย