Recent official forecasts from MetService and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 9–11°C for Wellington on August 16, 2026, with showers easing amid southerly winds. This aligns with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region following a cold, wet start to August driven by polar air outbreaks. Wellington’s winter maxima are typically shaped by limited daytime solar heating, persistent cloud cover, and strong maritime airflow that suppresses warming, consistent with historical August averages of 12–13°C but tempered by current synoptic patterns. Traders appear to weigh these short-range guidance updates and climatological baselines most heavily, resulting in concentrated implied probabilities around 10°C. Updated model runs and any shifts in frontal timing remain the key near-term variables.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
10°C 64%
11°C 22%
9°C 11%
12°C 4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
2%
9°C
11%
10°C
64%
11°C
22%
12°C
4%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 64%
11°C 22%
9°C 11%
12°C 4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
$223 ปริมาณ
<1%
5°C
$211 ปริมาณ
<1%
6°C
$260 ปริมาณ
<1%
7°C
$46 ปริมาณ
<1%
8°C
$304 ปริมาณ
2%
9°C
$1,119 ปริมาณ
11%
10°C
$2,047 ปริมาณ
64%
11°C
$744 ปริมาณ
22%
12°C
$327 ปริมาณ
4%
13°C
$76 ปริมาณ
1%
14°C or higher
$16 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 9–11°C for Wellington on August 16, 2026, with showers easing amid southerly winds. This aligns with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region following a cold, wet start to August driven by polar air outbreaks. Wellington’s winter maxima are typically shaped by limited daytime solar heating, persistent cloud cover, and strong maritime airflow that suppresses warming, consistent with historical August averages of 12–13°C but tempered by current synoptic patterns. Traders appear to weigh these short-range guidance updates and climatological baselines most heavily, resulting in concentrated implied probabilities around 10°C. Updated model runs and any shifts in frontal timing remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,373วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 9–11°C for Wellington on August 16, 2026, with showers easing amid southerly winds. This aligns with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region following a cold, wet start to August driven by polar air outbreaks. Wellington’s winter maxima are typically shaped by limited daytime solar heating, persistent cloud cover, and strong maritime airflow that suppresses warming, consistent with historical August averages of 12–13°C but tempered by current synoptic patterns. Traders appear to weigh these short-range guidance updates and climatological baselines most heavily, resulting in concentrated implied probabilities around 10°C. Updated model runs and any shifts in frontal timing remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,373วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from MetService and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 9–11°C for Wellington on August 16, 2026, with showers easing amid southerly winds. This aligns with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region following a cold, wet start to August driven by polar air outbreaks. Wellington’s winter maxima are typically shaped by limited daytime solar heating, persistent cloud cover, and strong maritime airflow that suppresses warming, consistent with historical August averages of 12–13°C but tempered by current synoptic patterns. Traders appear to weigh these short-range guidance updates and climatological baselines most heavily, resulting in concentrated implied probabilities around 10°C. Updated model runs and any shifts in frontal timing remain the key near-term variables.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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