**Wellington's July winter climatology centers daily maxima around 12–13°C, with 14°C emerging as the modal outcome in recent model guidance.** Short-range forecasts from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather project a July 23 high near 13°C under typical southerly flow and moderate wind, while seasonal NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region. Trader consensus at 51.5% on 14°C and 21.5% on 15°C reflects the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble runs and the potential for brief diurnal warming or measurement timing effects at official stations. Lower probabilities cluster around 12–13°C as the most likely baseline given persistent cool air masses, with tails below 11°C or above 16°C discounted by current steering patterns and lack of strong high-pressure blocking. Updated model runs and any MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on July 23?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 23?
14°C 62%
13°C 18%
15°C 18%
12°C 1.4%
ใหม่
$18,190 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$18,190 ปริมาณ
Jul 23, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
18%
14°C
62%
15°C
18%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 62%
13°C 18%
15°C 18%
12°C 1.4%
ใหม่
$18,190 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$18,190 ปริมาณ
Jul 23, 2026
8°C or below
$137 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$276 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$1,367 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$1,332 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$1,175 ปริมาณ
1%
13°C
$2,243 ปริมาณ
18%
14°C
$5,912 ปริมาณ
62%
15°C
$2,594 ปริมาณ
18%
16°C
$1,378 ปริมาณ
1%
17°C
$1,452 ปริมาณ
1%
18°C or higher
$323 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's July winter climatology centers daily maxima around 12–13°C, with 14°C emerging as the modal outcome in recent model guidance.** Short-range forecasts from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather project a July 23 high near 13°C under typical southerly flow and moderate wind, while seasonal NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region. Trader consensus at 51.5% on 14°C and 21.5% on 15°C reflects the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble runs and the potential for brief diurnal warming or measurement timing effects at official stations. Lower probabilities cluster around 12–13°C as the most likely baseline given persistent cool air masses, with tails below 11°C or above 16°C discounted by current steering patterns and lack of strong high-pressure blocking. Updated model runs and any MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,190วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's July winter climatology centers daily maxima around 12–13°C, with 14°C emerging as the modal outcome in recent model guidance.** Short-range forecasts from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather project a July 23 high near 13°C under typical southerly flow and moderate wind, while seasonal NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region. Trader consensus at 51.5% on 14°C and 21.5% on 15°C reflects the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble runs and the potential for brief diurnal warming or measurement timing effects at official stations. Lower probabilities cluster around 12–13°C as the most likely baseline given persistent cool air masses, with tails below 11°C or above 16°C discounted by current steering patterns and lack of strong high-pressure blocking. Updated model runs and any MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,190วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Wellington's July winter climatology centers daily maxima around 12–13°C, with 14°C emerging as the modal outcome in recent model guidance.** Short-range forecasts from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather project a July 23 high near 13°C under typical southerly flow and moderate wind, while seasonal NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region. Trader consensus at 51.5% on 14°C and 21.5% on 15°C reflects the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble runs and the potential for brief diurnal warming or measurement timing effects at official stations. Lower probabilities cluster around 12–13°C as the most likely baseline given persistent cool air masses, with tails below 11°C or above 16°C discounted by current steering patterns and lack of strong high-pressure blocking. Updated model runs and any MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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