Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a record 36 Republican House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms, including 16 retiring from public office and 19 pursuing higher roles like U.S. Senate bids or governorships, per Ballotpedia's May 15 tracker. The tight clustering of probabilities—44+ at 40.6%, 36–39 at 37.4%, and 40–43 at 34.9%—stems from ongoing announcements amid institutional frustrations, slim GOP majority pressures, and competitive district dynamics, with no new Republican departures in the past week following Rep. Daniel Webster's May 5 exit. Further separation could arise from clustered retirements among vulnerable swing-state members or leadership holdouts, while a slowdown in disclosures might anchor totals lower ahead of state-specific primary filing deadlines.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
44+ 46.6%
36–39 34.7%
28–31 13%
32–35 <1%
$56,541 ปริมาณ
$56,541 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<24
<1%
24–27
<1%
28–31
13%
32–35
1%
36–39
31%
40–43
36%
44+
47%
44+ 46.6%
36–39 34.7%
28–31 13%
32–35 <1%
$56,541 ปริมาณ
$56,541 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<24
$3,907 ปริมาณ
<1%
24–27
$18,964 ปริมาณ
<1%
28–31
$21,831 ปริมาณ
13%
32–35
$4,611 ปริมาณ
1%
36–39
$2,548 ปริมาณ
31%
40–43
$2,077 ปริมาณ
36%
44+
$2,602 ปริมาณ
47%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a record 36 Republican House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms, including 16 retiring from public office and 19 pursuing higher roles like U.S. Senate bids or governorships, per Ballotpedia's May 15 tracker. The tight clustering of probabilities—44+ at 40.6%, 36–39 at 37.4%, and 40–43 at 34.9%—stems from ongoing announcements amid institutional frustrations, slim GOP majority pressures, and competitive district dynamics, with no new Republican departures in the past week following Rep. Daniel Webster's May 5 exit. Further separation could arise from clustered retirements among vulnerable swing-state members or leadership holdouts, while a slowdown in disclosures might anchor totals lower ahead of state-specific primary filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$56,541วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a record 36 Republican House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms, including 16 retiring from public office and 19 pursuing higher roles like U.S. Senate bids or governorships, per Ballotpedia's May 15 tracker. The tight clustering of probabilities—44+ at 40.6%, 36–39 at 37.4%, and 40–43 at 34.9%—stems from ongoing announcements amid institutional frustrations, slim GOP majority pressures, and competitive district dynamics, with no new Republican departures in the past week following Rep. Daniel Webster's May 5 exit. Further separation could arise from clustered retirements among vulnerable swing-state members or leadership holdouts, while a slowdown in disclosures might anchor totals lower ahead of state-specific primary filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$56,541วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a record 36 Republican House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms, including 16 retiring from public office and 19 pursuing higher roles like U.S. Senate bids or governorships, per Ballotpedia's May 15 tracker. The tight clustering of probabilities—44+ at 40.6%, 36–39 at 37.4%, and 40–43 at 34.9%—stems from ongoing announcements amid institutional frustrations, slim GOP majority pressures, and competitive district dynamics, with no new Republican departures in the past week following Rep. Daniel Webster's May 5 exit. Further separation could arise from clustered retirements among vulnerable swing-state members or leadership holdouts, while a slowdown in disclosures might anchor totals lower ahead of state-specific primary filing deadlines.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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