**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 as of early August announcements, anchoring trader consensus on the 36–39 range at 84.3%.** Recent filings, including North Carolina Rep. Chuck Edwards’s August 5 retirement statement, have stabilized the total after an earlier wave of decisions. Most departures involve members retiring outright or seeking Senate, gubernatorial, or state attorney general races, exceeding historical midterm averages and reflecting redistricting effects, committee shifts, and term-limit pressures. With primary season largely complete and filing deadlines approaching in many states, additional late exits remain limited, keeping probabilities concentrated in the current band while lower-probability buckets capture only modest upside or downside variance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 84.3%
40–43 6.0%
32–35 2.1%
44+ 1.5%
$72,198 ปริมาณ
$72,198 ปริมาณ
Aug 30, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
1%
28–31
<1%
32–35
2%
36–39
84%
40–43
6%
44+
2%
36–39 84.3%
40–43 6.0%
32–35 2.1%
44+ 1.5%
$72,198 ปริมาณ
$72,198 ปริมาณ
Aug 30, 2026
<24
$6,266 ปริมาณ
1%
24–27
$20,168 ปริมาณ
1%
28–31
$23,648 ปริมาณ
<1%
32–35
$6,284 ปริมาณ
2%
36–39
$8,349 ปริมาณ
84%
40–43
$3,871 ปริมาณ
6%
44+
$3,613 ปริมาณ
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 as of early August announcements, anchoring trader consensus on the 36–39 range at 84.3%.** Recent filings, including North Carolina Rep. Chuck Edwards’s August 5 retirement statement, have stabilized the total after an earlier wave of decisions. Most departures involve members retiring outright or seeking Senate, gubernatorial, or state attorney general races, exceeding historical midterm averages and reflecting redistricting effects, committee shifts, and term-limit pressures. With primary season largely complete and filing deadlines approaching in many states, additional late exits remain limited, keeping probabilities concentrated in the current band while lower-probability buckets capture only modest upside or downside variance.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$72,198วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 as of early August announcements, anchoring trader consensus on the 36–39 range at 84.3%.** Recent filings, including North Carolina Rep. Chuck Edwards’s August 5 retirement statement, have stabilized the total after an earlier wave of decisions. Most departures involve members retiring outright or seeking Senate, gubernatorial, or state attorney general races, exceeding historical midterm averages and reflecting redistricting effects, committee shifts, and term-limit pressures. With primary season largely complete and filing deadlines approaching in many states, additional late exits remain limited, keeping probabilities concentrated in the current band while lower-probability buckets capture only modest upside or downside variance.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$72,198วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 as of early August announcements, anchoring trader consensus on the 36–39 range at 84.3%.** Recent filings, including North Carolina Rep. Chuck Edwards’s August 5 retirement statement, have stabilized the total after an earlier wave of decisions. Most departures involve members retiring outright or seeking Senate, gubernatorial, or state attorney general races, exceeding historical midterm averages and reflecting redistricting effects, committee shifts, and term-limit pressures. With primary season largely complete and filing deadlines approaching in many states, additional late exits remain limited, keeping probabilities concentrated in the current band while lower-probability buckets capture only modest upside or downside variance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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