Recent counts from congressional trackers show 37 to 40 Republican House incumbents declining to seek re-election for 2026, aligning closely with the market's dominant 36–39 range. This elevated total reflects a combination of retirements from public office, bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats, and primary losses, exceeding historical midterm benchmarks for the party. The slim Republican majority and midterm headwinds have accelerated announcements through mid-2026, with additional departures from committee roles and long-serving members. Further shifts remain possible if more incumbents pursue other offices or face unexpected primary challenges before filing deadlines close, though current momentum keeps the 36–39 outcome as the clear trader consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 4.8%
44+ 2.1%
$71,875 ปริมาณ
$71,875 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
1%
32–35
5%
36–39
83%
40–43
6%
44+
2%
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 4.8%
44+ 2.1%
$71,875 ปริมาณ
$71,875 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<24
$6,266 ปริมาณ
1%
24–27
$20,164 ปริมาณ
2%
28–31
$23,648 ปริมาณ
1%
32–35
$6,174 ปริมาณ
5%
36–39
$8,153 ปริมาณ
83%
40–43
$3,871 ปริมาณ
6%
44+
$3,599 ปริมาณ
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent counts from congressional trackers show 37 to 40 Republican House incumbents declining to seek re-election for 2026, aligning closely with the market's dominant 36–39 range. This elevated total reflects a combination of retirements from public office, bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats, and primary losses, exceeding historical midterm benchmarks for the party. The slim Republican majority and midterm headwinds have accelerated announcements through mid-2026, with additional departures from committee roles and long-serving members. Further shifts remain possible if more incumbents pursue other offices or face unexpected primary challenges before filing deadlines close, though current momentum keeps the 36–39 outcome as the clear trader consensus.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,875วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent counts from congressional trackers show 37 to 40 Republican House incumbents declining to seek re-election for 2026, aligning closely with the market's dominant 36–39 range. This elevated total reflects a combination of retirements from public office, bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats, and primary losses, exceeding historical midterm benchmarks for the party. The slim Republican majority and midterm headwinds have accelerated announcements through mid-2026, with additional departures from committee roles and long-serving members. Further shifts remain possible if more incumbents pursue other offices or face unexpected primary challenges before filing deadlines close, though current momentum keeps the 36–39 outcome as the clear trader consensus.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,875วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent counts from congressional trackers show 37 to 40 Republican House incumbents declining to seek re-election for 2026, aligning closely with the market's dominant 36–39 range. This elevated total reflects a combination of retirements from public office, bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats, and primary losses, exceeding historical midterm benchmarks for the party. The slim Republican majority and midterm headwinds have accelerated announcements through mid-2026, with additional departures from committee roles and long-serving members. Further shifts remain possible if more incumbents pursue other offices or face unexpected primary challenges before filing deadlines close, though current momentum keeps the 36–39 outcome as the clear trader consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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