Current forecasts from global models show Cape Town's overnight minimum on October 12 centered near 13°C, with several runs projecting 12–14°C under northwest winds, high humidity near 90%, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Traders assign near-equal weight to 12°C and 13°C because small differences in steering flow, shower timing, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the exact low by 1°C. Lower outcomes near or below 10°C remain plausible only if stronger southerly advection or clearer skies develop, while values above 14°C appear unlikely given the established marine influence and observed dew points. Updated model runs and official South African Weather Service guidance through the evening will resolve the narrow spread.