Recent weather model runs for Moscow indicate a mild overnight period on October 8–9, with southerly flow and increasing cloud cover ahead of a frontal system expected to deliver showers. Official guidance and ensemble forecasts place the minimum temperature most likely between roughly 5–9 °C, yet spread in guidance on cloud thickness, wind speeds, and timing of precipitation creates genuine uncertainty around whether readings dip toward or below 2 °C or remain closer to 10–12 °C. Historical October climatology shows average lows near 4 °C, so the tight 50/49 split between the extreme bins reflects traders weighting the latest GFS and ECMWF output against that baseline. Fresh model updates and any revised Russian Hydrometeorological Center briefing ahead of the 9th will be the next key catalysts.