**Current forecast consensus from major meteorological agencies and models centers on an overnight minimum of 16–17°C for Paris on August 30, 2026, directly supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes (combined ~95% implied probability).** A mild Atlantic air mass, southwest winds, and persistent cloud cover are limiting nighttime radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping toward the long-term average low of ~13°C. Official guidance, including Met Office runs, consistently projects a minimum near 17°C, with some local or model variants dipping to 16°C under slightly clearer breaks. This alignment of ensemble data explains the narrow spread and strong trader preference for 16–17°C resolution. Recent model updates have shown little drift in the 24–48 hour window, reinforcing stability around these values amid typical late-summer variability. Historical analogs for similar setups rarely produce outliers below 15°C or above 18°C overnight, further anchoring sentiment. Key upcoming inputs include the next high-resolution model cycles and any refinements to cloud or wind forecasts that could shift the precise minimum by 1°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Paris on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 30?
17°C 61%
16°C 35%
18°C 11%
15°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 30, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
9%
16°C
35%
17°C
61%
18°C
11%
19°C
7%
20°C
4%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 61%
16°C 35%
18°C 11%
15°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 30, 2026
12°C or below
$198 ปริมาณ
<1%
13°C
$165 ปริมาณ
1%
14°C
$0 ปริมาณ
3%
15°C
$11 ปริมาณ
9%
16°C
$245 ปริมาณ
35%
17°C
$703 ปริมาณ
61%
18°C
$118 ปริมาณ
11%
19°C
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
20°C
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
21°C
$68 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C or higher
$40 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from major meteorological agencies and models centers on an overnight minimum of 16–17°C for Paris on August 30, 2026, directly supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes (combined ~95% implied probability).**
A mild Atlantic air mass, southwest winds, and persistent cloud cover are limiting nighttime radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping toward the long-term average low of ~13°C. Official guidance, including Met Office runs, consistently projects a minimum near 17°C, with some local or model variants dipping to 16°C under slightly clearer breaks. This alignment of ensemble data explains the narrow spread and strong trader preference for 16–17°C resolution.
Recent model updates have shown little drift in the 24–48 hour window, reinforcing stability around these values amid typical late-summer variability. Historical analogs for similar setups rarely produce outliers below 15°C or above 18°C overnight, further anchoring sentiment. Key upcoming inputs include the next high-resolution model cycles and any refinements to cloud or wind forecasts that could shift the precise minimum by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,547วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from major meteorological agencies and models centers on an overnight minimum of 16–17°C for Paris on August 30, 2026, directly supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes (combined ~95% implied probability).**
A mild Atlantic air mass, southwest winds, and persistent cloud cover are limiting nighttime radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping toward the long-term average low of ~13°C. Official guidance, including Met Office runs, consistently projects a minimum near 17°C, with some local or model variants dipping to 16°C under slightly clearer breaks. This alignment of ensemble data explains the narrow spread and strong trader preference for 16–17°C resolution.
Recent model updates have shown little drift in the 24–48 hour window, reinforcing stability around these values amid typical late-summer variability. Historical analogs for similar setups rarely produce outliers below 15°C or above 18°C overnight, further anchoring sentiment. Key upcoming inputs include the next high-resolution model cycles and any refinements to cloud or wind forecasts that could shift the precise minimum by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,547วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast consensus from major meteorological agencies and models centers on an overnight minimum of 16–17°C for Paris on August 30, 2026, directly supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes (combined ~95% implied probability).** A mild Atlantic air mass, southwest winds, and persistent cloud cover are limiting nighttime radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping toward the long-term average low of ~13°C. Official guidance, including Met Office runs, consistently projects a minimum near 17°C, with some local or model variants dipping to 16°C under slightly clearer breaks. This alignment of ensemble data explains the narrow spread and strong trader preference for 16–17°C resolution. Recent model updates have shown little drift in the 24–48 hour window, reinforcing stability around these values amid typical late-summer variability. Historical analogs for similar setups rarely produce outliers below 15°C or above 18°C overnight, further anchoring sentiment. Key upcoming inputs include the next high-resolution model cycles and any refinements to cloud or wind forecasts that could shift the precise minimum by 1°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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