Meta’s internal documents, as reported in August 2026, targeted an October release for Watermelon, the frontier large language model in Meta Superintelligence Labs following Muse Spark. The model reportedly reached internal parity with GPT-5.5 using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, though these claims remain unverified by independent benchmarks. No launch occurred at the September 23 Meta Connect event despite a September 2 watermelon-emoji tease from Zuckerberg, and the model was still described as training into late summer. This absence of confirmed progress or public rollout has produced the current spread, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to no release by October 31 while dispersing smaller shares across specific October dates amid uncertainty over last-minute announcements, platform integration timelines, or further delays.