Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, at Build 2026 on June 2, with public preview availability via Microsoft Foundry by August 12. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation on enterprise-grade data, matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind human evaluations and SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks while delivering strong AIME math scores and efficient inference. This launch advances Microsoft’s push for model independence from OpenAI partners and positions the MAI family for deeper Azure and Copilot integration. Traders see momentum for a successor release by late 2026 driven by the company’s stated “hill-climbing” optimization loop, though timelines remain subject to typical AI development slippage and competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google models.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
27%
December 31
49%
$489 ปริมาณ
September 30
$188 ปริมาณ
27%
December 31
$301 ปริมาณ
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, at Build 2026 on June 2, with public preview availability via Microsoft Foundry by August 12. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation on enterprise-grade data, matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind human evaluations and SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks while delivering strong AIME math scores and efficient inference. This launch advances Microsoft’s push for model independence from OpenAI partners and positions the MAI family for deeper Azure and Copilot integration. Traders see momentum for a successor release by late 2026 driven by the company’s stated “hill-climbing” optimization loop, though timelines remain subject to typical AI development slippage and competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google models.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$489วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, at Build 2026 on June 2, with public preview availability via Microsoft Foundry by August 12. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation on enterprise-grade data, matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind human evaluations and SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks while delivering strong AIME math scores and efficient inference. This launch advances Microsoft’s push for model independence from OpenAI partners and positions the MAI family for deeper Azure and Copilot integration. Traders see momentum for a successor release by late 2026 driven by the company’s stated “hill-climbing” optimization loop, though timelines remain subject to typical AI development slippage and competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google models.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$489วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, at Build 2026 on June 2, with public preview availability via Microsoft Foundry by August 12. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation on enterprise-grade data, matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind human evaluations and SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks while delivering strong AIME math scores and efficient inference. This launch advances Microsoft’s push for model independence from OpenAI partners and positions the MAI family for deeper Azure and Copilot integration. Traders see momentum for a successor release by late 2026 driven by the company’s stated “hill-climbing” optimization loop, though timelines remain subject to typical AI development slippage and competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google models.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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