Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting sustained S&P 500 resilience at record highs amid the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout and de-escalating geopolitical tensions, such as the recent Iran conflict resolution. No marketwide halts have triggered since March 2020's COVID crash, despite intermittent drawdowns like the 9% intra-year dip earlier in 2026 that quickly reversed with a 12% rebound. The VIX fear gauge remains moderate at around 18 as of May 12, 2026—well below crash thresholds above 30—supported by resilient earnings breadth and anticipated Federal Reserve policy continuity under a potential new chair. While overbought technicals and oil price swings pose tail risks, the wisdom of crowds with real capital at stake underscores low near-term crash odds versus historical base rates. Key catalysts ahead include Q2 earnings and FOMC meetings.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$52,463 ปริมาณ
$52,463 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$52,463 ปริมาณ
$52,463 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting sustained S&P 500 resilience at record highs amid the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout and de-escalating geopolitical tensions, such as the recent Iran conflict resolution. No marketwide halts have triggered since March 2020's COVID crash, despite intermittent drawdowns like the 9% intra-year dip earlier in 2026 that quickly reversed with a 12% rebound. The VIX fear gauge remains moderate at around 18 as of May 12, 2026—well below crash thresholds above 30—supported by resilient earnings breadth and anticipated Federal Reserve policy continuity under a potential new chair. While overbought technicals and oil price swings pose tail risks, the wisdom of crowds with real capital at stake underscores low near-term crash odds versus historical base rates. Key catalysts ahead include Q2 earnings and FOMC meetings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52,463วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting sustained S&P 500 resilience at record highs amid the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout and de-escalating geopolitical tensions, such as the recent Iran conflict resolution. No marketwide halts have triggered since March 2020's COVID crash, despite intermittent drawdowns like the 9% intra-year dip earlier in 2026 that quickly reversed with a 12% rebound. The VIX fear gauge remains moderate at around 18 as of May 12, 2026—well below crash thresholds above 30—supported by resilient earnings breadth and anticipated Federal Reserve policy continuity under a potential new chair. While overbought technicals and oil price swings pose tail risks, the wisdom of crowds with real capital at stake underscores low near-term crash odds versus historical base rates. Key catalysts ahead include Q2 earnings and FOMC meetings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52,463วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting sustained S&P 500 resilience at record highs amid the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout and de-escalating geopolitical tensions, such as the recent Iran conflict resolution. No marketwide halts have triggered since March 2020's COVID crash, despite intermittent drawdowns like the 9% intra-year dip earlier in 2026 that quickly reversed with a 12% rebound. The VIX fear gauge remains moderate at around 18 as of May 12, 2026—well below crash thresholds above 30—supported by resilient earnings breadth and anticipated Federal Reserve policy continuity under a potential new chair. While overbought technicals and oil price swings pose tail risks, the wisdom of crowds with real capital at stake underscores low near-term crash odds versus historical base rates. Key catalysts ahead include Q2 earnings and FOMC meetings.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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