Trader consensus at 91% for "No" on OpenAI announcing AGI before 2027 stems primarily from the absence of any official milestone or system demonstrating broad, autonomous general intelligence. Recent GPT-5 iterations and agentic models have delivered expert-level coding and reasoning benchmarks yet remain specialized rather than versatile across novel domains, aligning with OpenAI's public planning that projects meaningful discovery-making capabilities only in 2028 and beyond. Sam Altman's statements emphasize incremental progress toward systems handling novel insights by late 2026 and real-world robotics in 2027, without claiming AGI. While rapid model releases could accelerate timelines or prompt a redefinition of AGI criteria, current verified capabilities and internal roadmaps continue to anchor the strong market-implied odds against an announcement in the remaining months of 2026.