Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" on an OpenAI AGI announcement before 2027 at 91% implied probability because current large language models and agentic systems have not reached verified general intelligence thresholds, despite rapid releases like GPT-5.3 variants. OpenAI's own 2025-2026 updates project only small scientific discoveries in 2026 and more substantial ones in 2028 or later, while a Microsoft partnership requires independent panel verification of any AGI claim—creating a high bar unlikely to be cleared soon. Executive timelines have lengthened amid technical hurdles in autonomous research and scaling limits. A credible breakthrough in recursive self-improvement or benchmark-defining capabilities could still shift odds, though recent expert reassessments point to longer horizons.