OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วOpenAI's Astra released on...?
OpenAI's Astra released on...?
September 3 49.6%
On or prior to September 2 25.9%
No release by September 30 10%
September 13 5%
ใหม่
$21,338 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$21,338 ปริมาณ
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
26%
September 3
50%
September 4
2%
September 5
2%
September 6
2%
September 7
3%
September 8
3%
September 9
2%
September 10
2%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
5%
September 14
1%
September 15
1%
September 16
1%
September 17
1%
September 18
1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
2%
September 22
1%
September 23
2%
September 24
2%
September 25
3%
September 26
2%
September 27
4%
September 28
3%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
14%
September 3 49.6%
On or prior to September 2 25.9%
No release by September 30 10%
September 13 5%
ใหม่
$21,338 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$21,338 ปริมาณ
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
$1,263 ปริมาณ
26%
September 3
$1,330 ปริมาณ
50%
September 4
$921 ปริมาณ
2%
September 5
$526 ปริมาณ
2%
September 6
$525 ปริมาณ
2%
September 7
$520 ปริมาณ
3%
September 8
$520 ปริมาณ
3%
September 9
$520 ปริมาณ
2%
September 10
$440 ปริมาณ
2%
September 11
$733 ปริมาณ
1%
September 12
$733 ปริมาณ
1%
September 13
$657 ปริมาณ
5%
September 14
$733 ปริมาณ
1%
September 15
$950 ปริมาณ
1%
September 16
$628 ปริมาณ
1%
September 17
$452 ปริมาณ
1%
September 18
$755 ปริมาณ
1%
September 19
$755 ปริมาณ
1%
September 20
$755 ปริมาณ
1%
September 21
$462 ปริมาณ
2%
September 22
$755 ปริมาณ
1%
September 23
$462 ปริมาณ
2%
September 24
$859 ปริมาณ
2%
September 25
$462 ปริมาณ
3%
September 26
$462 ปริมาณ
2%
September 27
$939 ปริมาณ
4%
September 28
$462 ปริมาณ
3%
September 29
$755 ปริมาณ
1%
September 30
$765 ปริมาณ
1%
No release by September 30
$1,239 ปริมาณ
14%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,338วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,338วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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