Recent polling from the University of Houston Hobby School shows Ken Paxton holding a narrow 48-45 percent lead over incumbent John Cornyn among likely Republican primary runoff voters, with 7 percent undecided, keeping the May 26 contest highly competitive. This tight margin, following a March primary where roughly 2.2 million Republicans participated, has sustained interest among core voters and is positioning total turnout most likely in the 1.2–1.5 million range. Early voting runs May 18–22, with mail ballot and registration deadlines already passed, creating a compressed window that typically compresses participation relative to the initial primary but rewards high mobilization in battleground Republican areas. Traders are pricing in these dynamics, with modest probabilities also assigned to the adjacent 0.9–1.2 million and 1.5–1.8 million brackets, reflecting uncertainty over final weekend turnout and any last-minute campaign efforts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTurnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
1.2–1.5M 26.4%
0.9–1.2M 19%
1.8–2.1M 15.9%
0.6–0.9M 11%
$89,047 ปริมาณ
$89,047 ปริมาณ
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
3%
0.6–0.9M
11%
0.9–1.2M
19%
1.2–1.5M
35%
1.5–1.8M
10%
1.8–2.1M
16%
2.1–2.4M
1%
2.4–2.7M
1%
2.7M+
1%
1.2–1.5M 26.4%
0.9–1.2M 19%
1.8–2.1M 15.9%
0.6–0.9M 11%
$89,047 ปริมาณ
$89,047 ปริมาณ
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
$998 ปริมาณ
3%
0.6–0.9M
$53,297 ปริมาณ
11%
0.9–1.2M
$1,101 ปริมาณ
19%
1.2–1.5M
$24,788 ปริมาณ
35%
1.5–1.8M
$576 ปริมาณ
10%
1.8–2.1M
$1,739 ปริมาณ
16%
2.1–2.4M
$2,047 ปริมาณ
1%
2.4–2.7M
$2,809 ปริมาณ
1%
2.7M+
$1,693 ปริมาณ
1%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling from the University of Houston Hobby School shows Ken Paxton holding a narrow 48-45 percent lead over incumbent John Cornyn among likely Republican primary runoff voters, with 7 percent undecided, keeping the May 26 contest highly competitive. This tight margin, following a March primary where roughly 2.2 million Republicans participated, has sustained interest among core voters and is positioning total turnout most likely in the 1.2–1.5 million range. Early voting runs May 18–22, with mail ballot and registration deadlines already passed, creating a compressed window that typically compresses participation relative to the initial primary but rewards high mobilization in battleground Republican areas. Traders are pricing in these dynamics, with modest probabilities also assigned to the adjacent 0.9–1.2 million and 1.5–1.8 million brackets, reflecting uncertainty over final weekend turnout and any last-minute campaign efforts.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$89,047วันสิ้นสุด
May 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling from the University of Houston Hobby School shows Ken Paxton holding a narrow 48-45 percent lead over incumbent John Cornyn among likely Republican primary runoff voters, with 7 percent undecided, keeping the May 26 contest highly competitive. This tight margin, following a March primary where roughly 2.2 million Republicans participated, has sustained interest among core voters and is positioning total turnout most likely in the 1.2–1.5 million range. Early voting runs May 18–22, with mail ballot and registration deadlines already passed, creating a compressed window that typically compresses participation relative to the initial primary but rewards high mobilization in battleground Republican areas. Traders are pricing in these dynamics, with modest probabilities also assigned to the adjacent 0.9–1.2 million and 1.5–1.8 million brackets, reflecting uncertainty over final weekend turnout and any last-minute campaign efforts.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$89,047วันสิ้นสุด
May 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from the University of Houston Hobby School shows Ken Paxton holding a narrow 48-45 percent lead over incumbent John Cornyn among likely Republican primary runoff voters, with 7 percent undecided, keeping the May 26 contest highly competitive. This tight margin, following a March primary where roughly 2.2 million Republicans participated, has sustained interest among core voters and is positioning total turnout most likely in the 1.2–1.5 million range. Early voting runs May 18–22, with mail ballot and registration deadlines already passed, creating a compressed window that typically compresses participation relative to the initial primary but rewards high mobilization in battleground Republican areas. Traders are pricing in these dynamics, with modest probabilities also assigned to the adjacent 0.9–1.2 million and 1.5–1.8 million brackets, reflecting uncertainty over final weekend turnout and any last-minute campaign efforts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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